Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jim Fitterling: Sure. And nice to hear your voice on the call, John. Welcome back. Yeah, we’ve got a number of non-product producing infrastructure assets that we continue to evaluate. We have in flight for this year greater than $1 billion. I think maybe even greater than $1.5 billion of additional cash proceeds from transactions related to that. We had a very successful divestiture in 2020 of our rail and marine infrastructure assets, and that is working well. And the idea was there was to liberate some cash, but keep a competitive cost structure. And that same mindset is in place here. And we think obviously the cash proceeds are going to help us with reinvesting in revenue-generating assets like the Alberta project as we move forward.

And then, the other cash-related kind of unique levers to Dow for the year is we’ve got the last part of the settlement from the Nova litigation, we should wind all that up and that’s about $500 million for the year. So, I’d say net-net, we’re pursing north of $1.5 billion plus the Nova litigation to try to get those kind of unique cash levers into the company. Anything else you want to add, Jeff?

Jeff Tate: Yes, Jim. The only other thing — and good morning, John, and thank you. The only other thing I would add is the working capital — structural working capital improvement opportunities that we’ll continue to focus on. If you recall, we reduced eight days and made eight days of improvement around our cash conversion cycle since spin. So, tremendous work across Team Dow. We’re going to look to continue to get at least another one to two days of improvements out of that, which should also give us another unique to Dow cash lever.

John Roberts: Great. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Cunningham from Citigroup. Your line is open.

Patrick Cunningham: Hi, good morning. So you mentioned — in II&I, you mentioned turnarounds maybe weighted towards the first quarter, Plaquemine coming back in 2Q, Freeport bringing on the increase in MDI distillation. Should we expect more significant sequential earnings improvement through the year, and maybe help size where we can exit the year for this segment? And then if you could also just briefly comment on what’s driving the direction of MDI and MEG spreads into 1Q, that would be great. Thanks.

Jim Fitterling: Yeah. I think generically that’s true, Patrick, that I think you’ll see that build through the year. First quarter, obviously, we mentioned the turnaround. But second quarter, we expect to get Glycol 2 back in Plaquemine, that will be positive. And then the third quarter will be more positive, so it will ramp into the back half of the year. On isocyanates, obviously, the biggest driver is on construction-related and durable goods related markets. Obviously, there’s some impact in automotive as well, any of the rigids is where most of that volume gets consumed. So as that — those volumes start to pick up, you’ll start to see MDI take off. And that’s usually a driver of value across the entire portfolio, both the polyols and the MDI side of things.

So, I’m hoping that we start to stimulate some of that demand in the back half of the year. And I think it was what China is doing in the markets, in the financial markets to try to stimulate some things. Could be between U.S. interest rates and what’s going on in China that we see some momentum build in the back half of this year.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Mike Leithead from Barclays. Your line is open.

Mike Leithead: Great. Thank you. Good morning. Two questions on your Sadara joint venture. First, I believe there was a report earlier this month that Aramco is raising feedstock prices. Will that impact Sadara, or should we expect input cost there to remain relatively flat? And second, EBITDA remains quite depressed right now relative to net debt at the JV. Can we expect any further restructuring or cash infusion needed over the next year or so? Or is the runway there sufficient to get back to, say, more mid-cycle type EBITDA levels?

Jim Fitterling: Yeah, it’s a good question. We’ve had no cash contributions that needed to be made to Sadara ’21, ’22, ’23. I’m not expecting any going forward. Sadara itself, like us, when you navigate the bottom of the cycle, it’s focusing on self-help actions to try to pull levers to keep costs down. There is talk in the kingdom about a raise and feedstock prices, and so we’ll obviously have a look at things that we can do within Sadara to offset those costs. But those haven’t taken hold just yet. And then obviously, the market comes back. Sadara is very levered to oil price. And so, oil clears the market for plastics, especially because that drives the Asia Pacific operating prices and costs. And so, when oil price comes up, which the expectations are that, that’s going to be constructive as we move into ’25 and beyond, there hasn’t been a lot of investment in oil production, demand is back above — demand for oil is back above where we were pre-pandemic, and yet we have big parts of the market that are not back about where we were pre-pandemic.

So, I think the outlook for demand is that the demand is going to come as the global markets improve, but the supply is going to lag. And so, we’re sitting here at $80 oil, that could firm up. You could start to see the top end of oil be pitched more toward $90, $100 as you get into the ’25, ’26 timeframe. And that has a pretty substantial impact to the bottom-line in Sadara. So near term, we’re going to navigate our cost at Sadara to keep the cost down and to be able to handle those feedstock costs longer term, obviously lean into the market as the economy improves.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Aleksey Yefremov: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Jim, you just made a couple of comments that siloxanes capacity could be absorbed by demand growth. And to me, you sound a little more positive here than in the past. Do you think this upstream silicones market could see margin uplift maybe within the next 12 months? Or is this a longer-term project?

Jim Fitterling: Yeah. If you look at the amount of capacity that’s coming on in 2024 versus what came on in ’23, it’s down quite a bit. You’ve got a couple of projects. There’s four projects in China that are coming on, and I think a couple of them could delay beyond 2024. The downstream markets have been continuing to grow, and we’ve been continuing to invest in debottlenecking. It’s just the amount of upstream that’s come on has added to that. The other positive that’s happened is, obviously, silicon metal prices have come down, too. And so that helps on the input side of things. So I think you’re going to see that as the downstream demand continues to improve and as globally coming continues to improve, we’re going to see that as the project pipeline for buildings continues to grow, and remember, this goes into everything.