Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (NYSE:PLOW) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Sarah Lauber: Sure. Yes, it is a little bit different this year as we’re talking about the slower retail at the end which also translates into, I guess, the beginning of Q4. So when I think about our fourth quarter forecast, we’re absolutely assuming average so far. It’s very important that we do see the snowfall in, call it, November, December, when it’s more typical to snow, and I say that as I look out the window, and it’s snowing like crazy here in Milwaukee. But — so from that standpoint, we are assuming average snowfall, although we have accounted for the fact that the retail season started out slower. So it’s also maybe a little bit more compounded confusing, I guess, Tim, when you think about fourth quarter last year was a very low comparison because we had very low snowfall then.

So when it comes to EBITDA growth, we’re still expecting to grow in the fourth quarter as we compare it to that low snowfall comp. But we have accounted for what we’ve talked about with the guidance change.

Timothy Wojs: Okay. Okay. So just having average snowfall in the guide relative to low snowfall last year, you did get some growth out of that should be the base expectation.

Sarah Lauber: Yes, correct.

Timothy Wojs: Okay. Okay. Got you. And then I guess on the Solutions business, just I mean how big of a gap or like an air pocket could you see in some of the chassis-related kind of issues from the strikes? I mean has anything actually been communicated to you guys? And I guess, just any detail around how long you were shut for and just kind of how you would think about the puts and takes to that in ’24?

Sarah Lauber: Yes. I would say there’s one facility that’s probably the most impactful to us, which was the facility in Kentucky for Ford. So the amount of time that, that was shut down we know it’s going to have an impact. We do not have any communication from the OEMs on what that impact will be, which is why we are saying we do expect something is probably going to be closer to early ’24 than late ’23, but it still remains to be seen.

Robert McCormick: Yes, I guess I would also add, I made a comment that we saw some increased chassis supply coming our way late in the third — in the second quarter and early in the third quarter, which is just what the OEMs ought to do, and that is they’re going to build a little bit of inventory ahead of the strike just in case. So we’re able to work through that inventory now. The question becomes when they turn the spigot back on, they start ramping back up, how long is that process going to be? And how long will our little temporary positive movement in terms of chassis supply last us before it runs into issues, Tim. And I think we’re feeling pretty good about the first part of the fourth quarter. We get into the month of December, and that’s when we start to see some potential challenges.

And again, I think they’ve got to get their business model back in place, when all the contracts are signed and then they’ll start communicating with us as to what the future looks like, but we should expect an impact in Q1. We just don’t know how to quantify that at this point.

Timothy Wojs: Okay. Okay. Understood. And then I guess just last question I have. Just Page 3 of the presentation that you sent out. Can you just maybe — I know there’s no numbers here, but could you actually add some numbers to what maybe some of these internal initiatives are kind of contributing? Just to give people a feel of like what the kind of the baseline profit improvement or some of the things that you’re doing on a core basis are kind of generating this year?