Dorian LPG Ltd. (NYSE:LPG) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Tim Hansen: Yeah. That is our view. I mean, you have about 260 new Panamax container ships on order and about 250 LNG new Panamax ships on order. So this will €“ not all of them will naturally use the canal, but there is more ships going in that way. And, I think, the LNG from the U.S. eventually even though you’ve seen it lately due to the war going into Europe. There will be more going to the east as well. So, I think, the utilization of the Panama Canal will be or it will be more busy. And we have also seen LPG carriers probably being the hard ahead of those, because we are excluded from booking ahead, where other liners and LNG carriers that can speculatively booked slots a year ahead. LPG ships can only book 14 days ahead for the canal and future the ranking that most companies have then that is an issue as the larger container lines have the higher rankings.

So, I see this increase continue, and also the Panama Canal authorities have increased the cost of the LPG carriers passing. I guess the LPG carriers is the smallest ship that can pass the canal €“ that can’t pass the old canal, and ask giving the least revenue. So we see significant increases of the actual transit cost plus people is most of the time having to bid for the auctions, which goes everything from $100,000 to $2 million on the auction fee. So we’re seeing more people also taking the longer route around the Cape or to the Suez Canal to ensure that they can actually meet their and have a firmer schedule. So also that longer route will give some more tons in the balance of things. And that configuration has gone due to the delays and due to the uncertainties and the auction fees, of course, which also you don’t know what will be.

So these things, I think, is the actual statement.

Sean Morgan: And then, if I could just squeeze in one more on this, I think, Ted in the prepared remarks said that the Baltic rate reflects Ras Tanura-Chiba route. And if I’m hearing correctly, it’s almost something like he doesn’t view that as maybe as central important route relative to the actual rates that you guys are seeing at your charter desks. So what routes do you think like now are kind of more indicative of how the trade is really happening for VLGCs kind of a weekly basis?

John Hadjipateras: Sean, let me take this as two questions, actually. And we’ll give you two answers. Tim will answer you specifically on the part of your question, which says, what kind of mix the trade €“ how we should think of the mix, right? Because it’s not just AG East, obviously, it’s a western route. And even the West is both AG, and then U.S. Gulf East, but also U.S. Gulf to the continent and other short-term. So I let him give you that. But first, I want to Ted to address the reason why he said the lag and the 100%, because when you €“ I noticed that most analysts now use a 1-month lag on the VLGC rate on the AG rate. And, of course, it’s still 100% utilization, which is fine. But, I think, I’d like Ted to have to explain to you why we think the 1-month lag will not reflect the actual earnings, because the lag in the receipt of freight is at least 2 months. Ted, do you want to?