John Hadjipateras: We think about it a lot. And we never get comfortable. We just weigh the balance of probability and to the best of our ability. So I let Tim give you some benefit of €“ some of the conclusions that we’ve reached on the projected equilibrium. We’re generally, I think, a little bit more optimistic than some other people. And, he’ll tell you why? Tim?
Tim Hansen: Yeah. So, of course, one thing that you can’t hide is, obviously, is evident to everybody is at 46 ships or so delivering in this year. But, what we think, we believe, we’ll balance this out to see the additional production, especially from the U.S, which have surprised quite a lot on the upside. So we see that most of the U.S. 80% of whatever is produced in the U.S. will go to the Far East. So the demand side is really in the Far East. So when we model that we see kind of around 20 ships absorbed due to that increase of volume at least, and that’s without any inefficiency. On top of that, when we have more congestions in the borders received more and more as a lot of places the infrastructure isn’t built out for the increased volume, especially like India and other places.
We’re also seeing a lot more go into Europe due to the war in Ukraine. So here we also seen more delays and then usually as its bigger volumes coming in. And then as we mentioned a few times if the Panama Canal delays, we do see them increasing. You can say some of the delays have happened due to the quite firm container market. But, again, even though that is that is kind of easing off, you are going to have a significant amount of LNG carriers built for the next year or delivering in the next year. And we also are going to see more Panamax container ships are delivering, and the new regulations in the Panama also allowing larger container ships actually to go through as they do not have to check the trucks into the box anymore. So we do see increased Panama Canal delays.
And then, we have €“ as Theodore mentioned earlier, the regulations on the EEXI and CII, which will have an impact on the shipping fleet as the SEC normally goes very close to full speed, where you see the tanker markets and the dry markets previously has not been running on full steam. So for them the EEXI reduction is not so significant. But for VLGC, this will have an impact on the fleet, which is quite significant, actually. So we see these factors as being able to absorb this shipping fleet coming in.
Sean Morgan: That’s really interesting. So, basically, I think you have a little bit of a natural hedge, the downside, I guess, more VLGCs coming in the market and obviously a larger impact from the big container ship, right? But what you’re saying is that there’s still only one Panama Canal and you’re just going to have more congestion. So are you sort of now thinking that the new steady state is just constant congestion in the Panama Canal that’s effectively slowing down fleets for not just obviously VLGCs, but just global fleets and increasing kind of utilization based on wait times?
