Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. (NYSE:DFIN) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We ended the quarter with $124.5 million of total debt and $101.4 million of non-GAAP net debt, a reduction of $44.7 million and $33.6 million, respectively, versus year end 2022. At year end 2023, we had no outstanding borrowings under our revolver and had $23.1 million of cash on hand. As of December 31, 2023, our non-GAAP net leverage ratio was 0.5 times. Regarding capital deployment, we repurchased approximately 82,000 shares of common stock during the fourth quarter for $4.6 million at an average price of $56.07 per share. For the full year 2023, we repurchased approximately 469,000 shares for $22.6 million at an average price of $48.20 per share. Going forward, we will continue to take a balanced approach toward capital deployment. We continue to view organic investments to drive our transformation, share repurchases and net debt reduction each as key components of our capital deployment strategy, and will remain disciplined in this area.

As it relates to our outlook for the first quarter of 2024, we are encouraged by improving level of transactional activity so far in the first quarter, especially in the number of priced and publicly filed IPOs. Though, overall transactional activity remains well below the historical average. In the near-term, we expect macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical factors will continue to weigh on the return to a more normalized deal activity level. We expect consolidated first quarter net sales in the range of $210 million to $220 million and adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-20% range. Compared to the first quarter of last year, the midpoint of our consolidated revenue guidance $215 million implies growth of approximately 8%. Our margin guidance also implies a higher adjusted EBITDA margin from the first quarter of 2023, which was 21.3%.

I’ll also provide a bit more color on our assumptions for the Capital Markets-Compliance and Communications Management segment. At the midpoint of our sales range, we assumed transactional sales of approximately $50 million in the first quarter, reflecting an increase of approximately $9 million from the first quarter of 2023. As it relates to the full year, our 2024 operating plan reflects the continued execution of our strategy and associated investments aimed toward accelerating our transformation. Our capital spending, which is predominantly related to development in our software products and the underlying technology to support them, is projected to be between $65 million and $70 million, an increase from the $61.8 million that we spent in 2023.

The additional CapEx is aimed at supporting the continued development of our Tailored Shareholder Reports solution and advancing toward our single compliance platform vision as part of our future product roadmap. From a margin perspective, due to increased investment levels in 2024 to support software product development and sales and marketing initiatives associated with Tailored Shareholder Reports, we expect the Tailored Shareholder Reports solution to have a slightly dilutive impact to DFIN’s consolidated adjusted EBITDA in 2024, given its half year impact in 2024 and becoming accretive to consolidated adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Additionally, in 2024, we will continue to make investments to accelerate our transformation. These investments in both software development and associated business processes will support our continued modernization, innovation and growth.

The combined impact of the ramp up of Tailored Shareholder Reports and transformation related investments are expected to be offset by higher revenue, continued mix shift into higher margin software offerings and further operating efficiencies. As a result, we expect our full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin to approximate the level we achieved in 2023, which was 26%. Finally, let me share a few key takeaways from our updated long-term projections. As a reminder, the detailed guidance can be found in our investor presentation posted on our investor relations website. First, having historically prioritized business stability while protecting our margins, our focus shifts to driving sustained revenue growth and margin expansion in chapter three.

Our updated five year projections deliver sustainable and profitable revenue growth. Specifically, we expect the growth in software solutions to more than offset the declines in tech-enabled services and print and distribution sales, enabling us to deliver consistent, low-single-digit consolidated net sales growth annually starting in 2024. Next, based on the revenue growth profile, we expect to continue to evolve toward a heavier mix of software solutions net sales in our five year plan. With focused efforts and targeted investments, we project software solutions net sales will represent approximately 60% of our total net sales by 2028, up from approximately 37% of total net sales at the end of 2023. In addition to the organic growth we are targeting for our software offerings, we expect to increasingly serve our clients via software, which entails a shift of revenue from traditional services to software over time.

Based on our experience in other areas where this has occurred, the shift from traditional services to software produces favorable economics with slightly lower revenue but higher adjusted EBITDA. We expect tech-enabled services net sales to decline moderately moving forward due to the shift to our software solutions. Consistent with the long-term trend, print and distribution net sales will continue to be impacted by secular decline and by 2028 are expected to represent approximately 15% of our net sales. More importantly, with the growth in software solutions, our revenue composition will also become more stable and predictable. By 2028, we expect 80% of our revenue will be derived from recurring and reoccurring use cases, with the remaining 20% being event driven, comprised primarily of capital markets transactional revenue.

For modeling purposes, we assume total transactional revenue to be flat to the 2023 levels in our five year projections with portions of transactions revenue historically recorded within tech-enabled services shifting to software solutions over our projection period. The combination of an evolving revenue mix, specifically growing our high margin software offerings, along with pricing opportunities and improvements in operating efficiencies creates the basis for a long-term adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. By 2028, we expect adjusted EBITDA margin to exceed 30%, with a ramp up in margin expansion beginning in 2025. The growth in adjusted EBITDA, a moderate level of CapEx and declining interest expense are expected to result in strong free cash flow generation across the projection period.