We came across a bullish thesis on Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) on Substack by Tired Salary Bear. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on DPZ. Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)’s share was trading at $463.78 as of April 3rd. DPZ’s trailing and forward P/E were 27.79 and 26.81 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
A family gathering around a delivery pizza box in the comfort of their own home.
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) represents one of the most compelling long-term compounders in the restaurant space, thanks to its asset-light, franchise-driven model that enables high-margin growth with minimal capital intensity. The company generates revenue through multiple high-quality streams: company-owned store sales, franchise royalties (5.5% of sales), supply chain operations (61% of consolidated revenues), and technology fees from digital ordering and PoS systems. Internationally, Domino’s also benefits from royalty payments averaging 3% of sales from master franchisees. Its franchise structure is built on exceptional unit economics that continue to attract private capital and entrepreneurial operators. The average Domino’s store generates $1.4 million in revenue with $162K in store-level EBITDA and roughly $150K in annual free cash flow, translating to a cash-on-cash return of 44-51% and a payback period of just three years—remarkably attractive economics that underpin Domino’s sustained global expansion.
Franchisee ownership is tightly regulated, often requiring operators to first work in-store, ensuring quality control and operational alignment with Domino’s standards. Growth comes from both store expansion—averaging 5% annually—and consistent same-store sales growth of 2-3%. These dynamics, coupled with strong free cash flow growth (from $5 per share eight years ago to $15 in 2024), support a long-term CAGR of 14.7%. If Domino’s continues compounding free cash flow at 10% annually while maintaining a shareholder yield of ~3% and benefits from a potential re-rating to historical multiples (currently 7% undervalued vs. average P/E of 30x), total shareholder returns could reach 20% annually over the next decade. Capex remains controlled at ~20% of operating cash flow, while share-based compensation is about 5%, indicating disciplined capital allocation.
The stability of Domino’s business model is further reinforced by its global scale, brand equity, and essential product offering. Its robust supply chain and tech-enabled operations enhance franchisee loyalty and operational efficiency, making it harder for competitors to displace. Shareholder yield stands at 3.48%, adding to its total return profile. While growth may appear modest compared to high-flying tech stocks, Domino’s offers dependable compounding and downside protection with recession-resilient earnings. For investors seeking a durable, high-ROIC business with a scalable model, long DPZ remains a strong call. The franchise model’s strength, cash generation, and disciplined financial management together paint a picture of a well-oiled machine poised for continued shareholder value creation.
Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 46 hedge fund portfolios held DPZ at the end of the fourth quarter which was 32 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of DPZ as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than DPZ but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.