Microsoft and the art of obfuscation
Whereas Google may indulge in the subtle art of ambiguity, Microsoft goes all out for obfuscation and denial, at least for subjects that might reflect negatively on the company. Lately, obfuscation and denial have characterized just about anything to do with its Windows on ARM initiatives, Windows RT and Windows Phone.
Unlike Google, Microsoft does sell their Phone and Windows licenses, so they must know exactly how many licenses have been sold to OEMs or directly to consumers.
Microsoft has never published sales figures for the Windows Phone. All Microsoft would say in their latest earnings report was that Q4 2012 WP8 sales were four times Q4 2011. This sounds impressive, but it’s actually contradicted by Gartner Research data, which shows Windows Phone 8 sales to end users of 6.185 million for Q4 2012 and 2.76 million for Q4 2011. If the 4x factor is correct, it could only have come about by front loading the manufacturing partners with more WP8 licenses than they could actually use in the quarter.
Even the sales numbers for Windows 8, which qualifies as a mobile operating system by virtue of various Windows 8 tablets and convertibles, are coming under greater scrutiny as HP’s quarterly report for the November 2012 through January 2013 period is digested. Analysts may have regarded the news as good for HP, but it was bad for Microsoft. HP’s consumer PC sales revenue declined by 13% y/y for the quarter. This was very unusual for a new Windows OS release, and Microsoft couldn’t claim “limited availability” as an excuse, since Windows 8 had been on store shelves and on PCs since the end of October.
It now appears that Microsoft adopted the same strategy for Windows 8 as for WP8 of front-loading Windows 8 license sales through discounts to consumers and OEMs. If this is the case, Windows 8 sales in succeeding quarters could drop precipitously.
But if the good news for Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 was somewhat contrived, there was no way to contrive good news for Windows/RT. IDC reported only 900,000 Surface RT devices sold in Q4 2012, and the latest estimate from Bloomberg is for a mere 200,000 for the current quarter, even as Surface Pro sells twice as many. As I predicted, Surface Pro is cannibalizing Surface RT sales, despite being heavier, bulkier, and costlier. Of course, Microsoft has been utterly silent on the subject of Windows RT and Surface RT sales.
Get with it Apple
The table below summarizes the change in share prices of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google and Microsoft since their respective earnings reports for calendar Q4 2012 were released.
Not all of Apple’s share price change can be attributed to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s greater transparency regarding device sales, but clearly it has some negative effect. Transparency, like familiarity, appears to breed contempt where investors are concerned.
The article Does Apple’s Transparency Breed Contempt? originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Mark Hibben.
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