We at Insider Monkey have gone over 752 13F filings that hedge funds and prominent investors are required to file by the SEC The 13F filings show the funds’ and investors’ portfolio positions as of September 30th. In this article, we look at what those funds think of Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL) based on that data.
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL) shares haven’t seen a lot of action during the third quarter. Overall, hedge fund sentiment was unchanged. The stock was in 7 hedge funds’ portfolios at the end of the third quarter of 2019. At the end of this article we will also compare AVAL to other stocks including Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX), Carlisle Companies, Inc. (NYSE:CSL), and Lamar Advertising Company (REIT)(NASDAQ:LAMR) to get a better sense of its popularity.
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Hedge funds’ reputation as shrewd investors has been tarnished in the last decade as their hedged returns couldn’t keep up with the unhedged returns of the market indices. Our research has shown that hedge funds’ large-cap stock picks indeed failed to beat the market between 1999 and 2016. However, we were able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that outperformed the Russell 2000 ETFs by 40 percentage points since May 2014 (see the details here). We were also able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that’ll significantly underperform the market. We have been tracking and sharing the list of these stocks since February 2017 and they lost 27.8% through November 21, 2019. That’s why we believe hedge fund sentiment is an extremely useful indicator that investors should pay attention to.
David E. Shaw of D.E. Shaw
We leave no stone unturned when looking for the next great investment idea. For example Europe is set to become the world’s largest cannabis market, so we check out this European marijuana stock pitch. One of the most bullish analysts in America just put his money where his mouth is. He says, “I’m investing more today than I did back in early 2009.” So we check out his pitch. We read hedge fund investor letters and listen to stock pitches at hedge fund conferences. We also rely on the best performing hedge funds‘ buy/sell signals. Let’s check out the key hedge fund action encompassing Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL).
What have hedge funds been doing with Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL)?
At the end of the third quarter, a total of 7 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 0% from the previous quarter. By comparison, 6 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in AVAL a year ago. With hedge funds’ positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an “upper tier” of key hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings meaningfully (or already accumulated large positions).
According to publicly available hedge fund and institutional investor holdings data compiled by Insider Monkey, Renaissance Technologies, holds the number one position in Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL). Renaissance Technologies has a $12.3 million position in the stock, comprising less than 0.1%% of its 13F portfolio. On Renaissance Technologies’s heels is Israel Englander of Millennium Management, with a $2.2 million position; the fund has less than 0.1%% of its 13F portfolio invested in the stock. Remaining peers with similar optimism encompass Thomas Bailard’s Bailard Inc, David E. Shaw’s D E Shaw and Ronald Hua’s Qtron Investments. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Qtron Investments allocated the biggest weight to Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL), around 0.12% of its 13F portfolio. Bailard Inc is also relatively very bullish on the stock, dishing out 0.09 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to AVAL.
We view hedge fund activity in the stock unfavorable, but in this case there was only a single hedge fund selling its entire position: Citadel Investment Group. One hedge fund selling its entire position doesn’t always imply a bearish intent. Theoretically a hedge fund may decide to sell a promising position in order to invest the proceeds in a more promising idea. However, we don’t think this is the case in this case because only one of the 800+ hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey identified as a viable investment and initiated a position in the stock (that fund was Stevens Capital Management).
Let’s go over hedge fund activity in other stocks – not necessarily in the same industry as Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL) but similarly valued. We will take a look at Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX), Carlisle Companies, Inc. (NYSE:CSL), Lamar Advertising Company (REIT) (NASDAQ:LAMR), and Tradeweb Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:TW). All of these stocks’ market caps are similar to AVAL’s market cap.
| Ticker | No of HFs with positions | Total Value of HF Positions (x1000) | Change in HF Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBIX | 42 | 1101616 | 8 |
| CSL | 30 | 454941 | 5 |
| LAMR | 28 | 238134 | 4 |
| TW | 37 | 400592 | 0 |
| Average | 34.25 | 548821 | 4.25 |
View table here if you experience formatting issues.
As you can see these stocks had an average of 34.25 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $549 million. That figure was $18 million in AVAL’s case. Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Lamar Advertising Company (REIT)(NASDAQ:LAMR) is the least popular one with only 28 bullish hedge fund positions. Compared to these stocks Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL) is even less popular than LAMR. Our calculations showed that top 20 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 37.4% in 2019 through the end of November and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 9.9 percentage points. A small number of hedge funds were also right about betting on AVAL, though not to the same extent, as the stock returned 7.8% during the fourth quarter (through 11/30) and outperformed the market as well.
Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
