DivGro Pulse: November 2016

This is the third edition of my new monthly article series in which I’m monitoring the health of DivGro, my portfolio of dividend growth stocks.

These pulse articles are strategy focused. I provide updated fair value estimates and compare them to current market prices. Undervalued stocks are candidates for further investment. I rate stocks on a 7-star scale and consider 6-star or 7-star stocks to be quality dividend growth stocks.

I also provide various charts to visualize recent performance. If a stock performs poorly, it could be a sign of some underlying problem. Hopefully, these charts will help identify potential problems and inform my investment decisions.

Matej Kastelic/Shutterstock.com

In last month‘s article, I identified Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) as a stock I wanted to get rid of. Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) made a decent comeback but I expressed concerns about the company’s near-term future (1). I gave the stock a 4-star rating and ranked it #36 out of 49 stocks. I closed my Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) position on 30 October for a modest gain of 11.6%, or 4.7% annualized.

Discounted Stocks

Stocks in my portfolio that trade at a discount to fair value are candidates for further investment.

Before I buy more shares, I want to analyze a stock to see if I still like the fundamentals. Conversely, if a stock is trading at a premium to fair value, I don’t want to buy more shares.

The following chart shows the percentage discount to fair value of all the stocks in my portfolio. Green bars represent discounts, and red bars represent premiums (or negative discounts):

I prefer buying stocks when they’re available at a discount of 10% to fair value. From the chart above, nine stocks are discounted by more than 10%. But are these stocks suitable for further investment?

As a first pass test, I rank the stocks based on fundamentals and assign a 7-star rating to each stock:

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD), Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO), and Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) have 6-star ratings. At 2.20% of available capital, GILD is the largest investment of these stocks. I have 1.74% allocated to CSCO and 1.36% allocated to VLO. The average position size in DivGro is 1.64%.

Quality Stocks

Sometimes it is appropriate to add shares to an existing position even if the stock is trading at fair value or at a small premium to fair value. Alternatively, one could sell puts on stocks trading at a premium, and so set your preferred entry price while collecting options premiums.

Here are the top ten ranked stocks for November:

All these stocks have 6-star ratings.

The premiums on General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD), 3M Co (NYSE:MMM) and Chubb Ltd (NYSE:CB) are too high for my taste. I’m unlikely to find suitable put options (at or near fair value) unless I choose expiration dates far into the future.

As for Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) and International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM), I’m more likely to find suitable put options trades. And IBM is trading at about fair value, so I could even consider doing a straight covered call trade.

Of the discounted stocks, I have less than 1% of available capital allocated to Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT), while T. Rowe Price Group Inc (NASDAQ:TROW) (1.41%) and Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) (1.36%) both have allocations below DivGro’s average of 1.65%.

GD remains my top performing stock with an annualized total return of 45%. NKE currently yields 1.25% but its dividend growth rate is impressive.

T. Rowe Price Group Inc (NASDAQ:TROW), Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT), International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM), and QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) made my list of 10 Dividend Growth Stocks for November 2016 (2).

Recent Performance

One way to assess a stock’s recent performance is to plot the current price relative to the 52-week trading range:

I consider stocks trading below the 50% mark potentially to be undervalued.

Another way to look at a stock’s recent performance is to plot current yield relative to the 52-week yield range. For consistent dividend payments, a stock’s yield rises when the stock price drops, and vice versa. Dividend growth investors often look at current yield relative to average yield over a time frame. A higher current yield suggests that a stock may be undervalued.

Because of the inverse price-yield relationship, the chart essentially reverses the order of the stocks. It is not an exact reversal, though. The reason is many stocks have experienced dividend increases over the past year.

Finally, I compare recent returns to annualized returns over a longer time frame. Doing so allows me to get a sense of each stock’s recent performance. The following chart compares 1-year returns to annualized 5-year returns for all DivGro stocks. Note that dividends are not accounted for in this chart:

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) is the worst performer of all the stocks in my DivGro portfolio. In contrast, BHP Billiton plc (ADR) (NYSE:BBL), QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM), and Cummins Inc. (NYSE:CMI) have performed quite well over the last year.

Positions To Close

My plans to sell the following stocks have not changed. I’m including 8-year F.A.S.T. Graphs showing the stock price correlated with each stock’s Adjusted (Operating) Earnings Growth Rate. In each case, the projected growth rates are negative.

– BHP Billiton plc (ADR) (NYSE:BBL)

Since my last pulse article, BBL has improved from an annualized loss of 11% to an annualized loss of 8%. BHP Billiton plc (ADR) (NYSE:BBL) is rated 2-stars and ranked #47 out of 48 stocks. The company has cut the dividend twice in the past year, so BHP Billiton plc (ADR) (NYSE:BBL) now yields only 1.75%. I’m planning to sell BBL by year’s end and to offset some 2016 capital gains.

– Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (NYSE:HP)

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (NYSE:HP) is ranked #39 out of 48 stocks and has a 4-star rating. Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (NYSE:HP)’s performance over the past month has been great, so my decision to hang on a little longer is paying off. The stocks’ yield has contracted to 3.99% from the 4.21% reported last time. I should be able to sell my shares for a small profit before year’s end.

– PennantPark Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:PNNT)

Unfortunately, PennantPark Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:PNNT) announced a cut in the distribution (3) starting with the March 2017 payment. The stock reacted violently, dropping nearly 10% on the day after the press release. I’m not surprised that the cut finally came, as PennantPark Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:PNNT)’s yield was unsustainable at nearly 16%. I’ll collect the final 28¢ dividend in December and then sell my shares. At the current price, I’ll get out with a slight profit with one more round of distributions.

Positions To Boost

Based on the information presented here, I’ll be looking for opportunities to add shares to a few of my DivGro positions or to look for suitable put options trades. By selling a put, I can set my entry price and collect an options premium while waiting for the stock to drop to my preferred price.

Please note that I’m not recommending these stocks. Readers should do their due diligence!

In the following descriptions, the yield is calculated on closing prices on 23 November 2016, payout is the EPS (earnings per share) payout ratio, and debt is the stock’s debt to equity ratio. I also include Morningstar’s moat rating and Standard and Poor’s credit rating. Value Line’s safety and financial strength ratings round things out.

– T. Rowe Price Group Inc (NASDAQ:TROW)

streak 30 years | 5-year growth rate 14% | yield 2.91% @ $74.28 | payout 52% | debt 0% | moat wide | credit rating N/A | safety 2 | financial strength A+

Dividend Champion T. Rowe Price Group Inc (NASDAQ:TROW) is trading at about fair value. I like the stock’s yield, dividend growth rate, and the fact that it has zero debt. S&P Capital IQ gives T. Rowe Price Group Inc (NASDAQ:TROW) a Quality Ranking of A-.

Thanks for reading and take care, everybody!

Note: FerdiS manages and writes about DivGro, his portfolio of dividend growth stocks created in January 2013. Please visit divgro.blogspot.com.

Additional Links:

(1) http://seekingalpha.com/news/3214453-cat-ceo-oberhelmans-early-departure-warning-analysts-say

(2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/4024899-10-dividend-growth-stocks-november-2016

(3) http://pennantparkinvestment.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/pennantpark-investment-corporation-announces-financial-results-for-the-fourth-qu-nasdaq-pnnt-1286845