Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

In terms of the second part of your question around servicing strategies, there’s been a lot of work done on best time to contact, and we’ve got some machine learning models that are focused on that, as well as best channel to contact, so is it via phone, e-mail, text or other means. All that work is ongoing. And frankly, it will never stop. It will be a continued refinement of the model so that we can collect effectively and originate profitably.

Rick Shane: Got it. Hey, John, it’s very interesting, and very helpful. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question will come from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Mihir Bhatia: Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. To start, I wanted to actually ask about personal loans. You’re continuing to see some very healthy growth there. Can you talk a little bit more about some of the drivers? I think I know you mentioned a little bit of payment rate pullback, but what about from a competition standpoint? What’s driving that? And then, just related to that — the comments you’ve been making about on the credit card side, I wanted to understand if you’re seeing any meaningful deterioration in credit there? Anything on the — do the vintage comments apply here? Anything like we should be thinking about there? Are you tightening underwriting currently in that personal loan space too? Yeah, thanks.

John Greene: Yeah. Thanks, Mihir. So, our average ticket on a personal loan is significantly larger than many of our competitors. And the predominant share of the volume now is for debt consolidation efforts. And important to recognize that as part of our underwriting process, when there’s a debt consolidation customer, somewhere between 70% to 80% of the disbursement goes to the creditors to ensure that the overall cost of debt for that customer is lowered and, therefore, their ability to pay is high. So that’s an important distinction. In terms of growth, what we’ve seen is, high level of demand, but also a reduction in the payment rate. And that reduction in the payment rate is also been responsible for a very significant chunk of the growth that we’ve seen in the quarter.

In terms of kind of the performance there, it is, what I’ll say, returning to more historical performance metrics. But, again, highly profitable, and you can see from the report or from the details in terms of delinquency rates, they’ve remained very, very low relative to historical standards.

Mihir Bhatia: Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you. Maybe if I could just turn back a little for a second to the compliance issue question and the timing, et cetera. It sounds like from what you’re saying related to the merchant mispricing issue, the outside law firm has completed the investigation. You’ve discussed results with regulators already. So, I think a lot of what a lot of people are just trying to understand is what needs to happen for the buybacks to resume. I understand it’s difficult to put a specific date out there. But is the overall message, it’s going to take several quarters for those to review? Maybe just help us understand what needs to happen here for you to get comfortable. And, again, like, I understand you don’t want to put a specific timeframe, but is the right message, like, it’s going to be several quarters more? Thanks.

John Greene: Yeah. So, no specific timing on the resumption. So, what we want to do is have further dialogue with our merchants to ensure we’re progressing the remediation and the negotiation. We also continue to have discussions with our regulatory agencies and we’re looking to progress those. And we’re also reviewing our capital positions, right? There’s a number of pulls on capital this year. Certainly, the phenomenal loan growth that we’ve seen, we’ve got the Basel Endgame that’s on the horizon. We have the CECL phase-in also impacting capital levels. So, we’re going to take a look at the profitability for 2024. Take a look at the progress we’re making on the card tiering issue and overall risk and governance items, and make a recommendation to the Board.