Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ryan Nash: Got it. Thanks for the color. And maybe the follow-up on some of Sanjay and Bill’s question. So, when I think about the comments that you and John made regarding the trajectory of the ’22 vintage, ’23 likely hasn’t begun to [season] (ph) yet inflation weighing on consumers. Can you maybe just help us understand more broadly just thinking about how we should see the trajectory of delinquencies, meaning could we actually see the underperformance that we’ve experienced get worse as we sort of go through this next period of time given that you do have this really big vintage that’s coming through? And any commentary on framing how much of this is seasoning — and how much of the delinquency performance is seasoning of the book versus actual underlying deterioration that you’re seeing in the core customer base?

John Greene: Yeah. A lot to parse there, Ryan. Let me start by kind of walking you through what we’re seeing in the portfolio. So, we are seeing kind of differences in performance on customers that historically have been transactor versus revolver. So, our revolver base, we’re seeing a more significant decrease in sales activity, which makes sense, right, as they try to manage their household budget. We’re seeing accounts that transacted in ’21, ’20 and ’22 beginning to revolve more. So, the revolve rate is back to where we were historically. And the ’23 vintages, early indications are that it’s performing very, very well. 2022 is performing well, but not as well as 2023. So, my expectation is that delinquencies will slow in the first half of 2024. If that doesn’t happen, that’s an indication that the stress that the consumers are seeing is more significant than what we’re observing today.

Ryan Nash: Thanks for the color, John.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question will come from John Hecht with Jefferies. Your line is open.

John Hecht: Hey, guys. Thanks very much. Actually, most of my questions and the fact just even the last question was exactly overlapping. So, maybe I’ll just quickly ask, number one is, maybe a quick update on kind of the competitive environment, what kind of zero balance kind of transfer activity you’re engaging in and other kind of factors that you would tie to competition as kind of the credit environment maybe migrates a little bit? And then, what are you guys — on that front, what are you doing with respect to underwriting to account for some of these changes that you’re seeing as well?

John Greene: Great. Yeah. I’ll take that. So, the environment continues to be competitive from a card origination standpoint. We are seeing less competition in kind of the lower FICO band. So, remember, we’re a prime revolver, so we’re focused on prime customers, and the lower tier of origination envelope is, frankly, less competitive. So, we’re careful as we’re looking at that to make sure that those folks seeking credit are worthy of credit and not going to turn into a subsequent charge-off. The upper prime remains very, very competitive. The rewards competition, you can see it by the television ads, has certainly subsided significantly. So, the market is always competitive. The competition varies among various FICO bands. And we’re going to continue to compete and generate positive new accounts, but we’re also mindful of the credit situation.

John Hecht: Great. Thank you, guys, very much.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question will come from Jeff Adelson with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Jeff Adelson: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. John Greene, just wanted to follow up on the commentary of peak losses. I think you mentioned sometimes in — sometime in mid to late 2024. I think, last quarter, you talked about maybe this getting pushed into 2025. Is there a risk that maybe the peak kind of plateaus at or around those higher levels? Or do you think, as your 2020 vintage kind of peaks out and starts moderating in size, the losses in delinquency should just naturally drift lower?