And there, the reason for caution is both the timing and magnitude of that item, as well as potential offsets that we’ve been working on whether to do with other models, or limitations that have been applied in our IRB, sort of world. And so with, with the uncertainty, as I say, timing and magnitude, and therefore volatility, we think it’s just prudent to hold on to the capital to ensure that we wouldn’t be distributing an amount that while by the end of the year, we would have been very comfortable distributing on an interim basis, it might have made us look a little thin and potentially influenced our ability to support balance sheet growth, support clients in this environment. So hopefully that gives you a little color on how we’ve been thinking about it and what is coming down the pike.
Operator, I think we can go to the next question. Thank you, Chris.
Operator: The next question comes from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux. Your question, please.
Nicolas Payen : It’s good morning. Thanks. Good afternoon, sorry. Thanks for taking my question. I have two, please. One on risk management and one follow up on costs. The first one on risk management, you mentioned your guidance of 25 to 30 basis points cost of risk. Wanted to know, what are your underlying assumptions beyond this, range before 25? And what would drive an increase to 30 basis points? So in other words, what’s your sensitivity into this range? And if we could also add a bit of color and where we stand vis-Ã -vis the scenario of the compete gas cut off within this guidance? And the second question, the follow up on costs, is if your revenue growth does not materialize, as you expect, what kind of flexibility do you have? Because, notably, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned additional potential measure on costs, notably in agile management of headcount numbers. So if we could have a bit of color on this item, please. Thank you very much.
Olivier Vigneron: Sure. Thank you for the question on credit loss provision. As you know, we have guided a range of 25 to 30 basis points. And your question is, really how do we get to the bottom of this range i.e. 25 basis points, which would take us flat to what we’ve done in 2022? Well, really the tailwind that I can identify, number one, the prospect of perhaps a short shallow recession in the U.S. Inflation is trimming back and we have a prospect of normalization of interest rate rises this year and also the decline of around energy concerns, due to the mild winter to the different measures, consumers have taken and also the Germany’s €200 billion package on energy prices is a key factor. The fourth one is really China reopening that nobody forecasted and that is beneficial to growth.
So for instance, different research are now not forecasting. Really a recession was a full year for Germany, but perhaps more stagnation. So all these tailwinds would get us towards the bottom of the range. To your question of how do we good go to the top of the range would be any downside risk around these factors, really. So that would be my answer. The second part of your question concerns, at the end of Q3 when we had a lot of uncertainty and we were very concerned coming out of the summer around the possible energy squeeze. We did a lot of detailed work in our book to estimate the possible impact around that. But both — and we guided for the next 18 months or 20 with downside, but both in terms of likelihood, but also in terms of impact, because of the measures I’ve mentioned about the government, and how people are adapting with new energy supplies.
We see these downside risk as to be discounted, both in likelihood and in magnitude.
