Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Mike Linenberg: Great. And then just a quick one to Dan or Ed. I didn’t see in the release a reiteration of the $7-plus for 2024. I know you’re still mid-budget, but just based on the trajectory and everything you’re seeing now, that number is still fine?

Ed Bastian: That’s our plan, Mike. I mentioned that we gave that guide in December of 2021, as long as free cash and others and we’re on track.

Mike Linenberg: Very good. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley. Your line is live.

Ravi Shanker: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Glen, I’m probably going to ask Jamie’s initial SkyMiles data mining question in a different way. And based on data that you have, do you have any evidence that traditional domestic travelers have been flying internationally more often in 2023, maybe people taking their first or kind of rare international trips? Just trying to see if there’s any truth or data to back up the thesis that there has been substitution of domestic with people flying internationally this year.

Glen Hauenstein: Well, I’d say that’s a very broad question, and clearly, there’s been an expansion of international. But if you think about domestic and the volume differential between the number of seats we have every day domestically and the number of seats we have every day to Europe, it would be very hard to track those incremental visits back to people who did not fly domestically, because it’s such a small piece of domestic travel in terms of total volumes. And so, while clearly, the spend has been very robust for long-haul in general, we have not seen a diminishing of short-haul either.

Ravi Shanker: Got it. That’s really helpful. And maybe as a follow-up, kind of feels like Trans-Pacific has not quite been the explosion of pent-up demand that we saw in domestic and Transatlantic when they initially opened, but it looks like 2024 might be a better year for that. Is there any way you think that the historical profitability in that region, which has not been great to say the least, can be better when that initial kind of flow-through of demand comes through with pricing the way it might potentially be?

Glen Hauenstein: Well, I’d disagree with you on your premise there that Pacific has been a laggard. Pacific has been quite robust, and I think we indicated these are our record profits in terms of margins and total profitability in the Pacific. And if you look at the Pacific, absent of China, it’s been fully restored. So, I think we’re very pleased with the demand to the Pacific, and we’re — right now, that’s where our capacity is sitting up most in the fourth quarter and where it will be in the first and through next year. And so — and we’re very enthusiastic about the results we’re getting there.

Ravi Shanker: Very helpful. Thanks, Glen.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays. Your line is live.

Brandon Oglenski: Yeah, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Glen, I know you’ve called out your corporate travel here being up in coastal hub strength, but can you talk to maybe any areas of weakness domestically? And is there like diverging trends with your main cabin revenue?

Glen Hauenstein: Well, I think we’ve called out diverging trends with main cabin. Those have been pretty consistent, though, throughout the recovery is it’s been led by premium products and services. So that’s not inconsistent between quarters. I think it’s actually relatively flat in terms of the — how much premium is driving there. And geographically, I think what we’re really excited about is the coastal hub investments we’ve made and particularly New York, that’s something we’re looking for in ’24. We see a lot of momentum in the Northeast and New York in particular, as things to look forward to in ’24.

Brandon Oglenski: Okay. And then on the outlook for next year, growing with your JVs on the international side, how does the changes in Mexico impact as they move to a Category 1 with the FAA?

Glen Hauenstein: Right. Mexico has been a great source of strength for us through the last year, and we see continued strength in those Mexican business. And I think when you think about what we read in the press and what you all see and the onshoring and moving factories from Asia down into Mexico, we’ve seen really an incredible strength in demand from the business sector in Mexico, and that’s looking really robust into 2024. And working with Aeromexico now, we really couldn’t do much with them. These are things we wanted to do in the past. You see us coordinating with them. We have an ATI joint venture. So, we’ve been working very closely with them to continue to work on where we see strength and being able to serve those markets better, including the auto sector in Detroit and including Atlanta as a primary gateway to Mexico primary and secondary airports.

Brandon Oglenski: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Helane Becker from TD Cowen. Your line is live.

Helane Becker: Thanks very much, operator. Hi, everybody, and thank you very much for the question. Just on — with respect to as you think about travel next summer on the North Atlantic, especially where U.S. citizens are going to need visas, how are you thinking about communicating that to people as they book trips? Is that going to be in the reservation process or follow-ups? Or how do you avoid surprises?

Peter Carter: Helane, hi. It’s Peter Carter. Say, we will make sure our customers are aware of the visa requirement at various points along the purchasing path and the journey. And I will tell you that the nice thing about the new visa requirement is it is a e-visa, so it’s a fairly straightforward process that we think will take about 24 hours.

Helane Becker: Yeah. I think it’s like Australia, right, where it’s pretty quick unless it’s not, I think. Okay, that’s helpful. Thank you. And then the other question I had was just on the changes to Israel. How big actually is that in your total — in the total market? It’s a lot of ASMs, but it can’t be that big in terms of, I guess, exposure.

Glen Hauenstein: It’s a little over 1 point of ASMs. And we’re not going to give an exact number, but it’s included — the revenue hit is included in our fourth quarter guide. So, we’ve extended at least through October and then we’ll see what happens. The reason we’re not saying how much exposure there is, is we don’t know how this will evolve yet, so we’re staying very fluid. But I think we feel very confident that we can get inside of our guidance ranges here with Israel kind of in a worst-case scenario.

Helane Becker: Got it. Okay. Thanks very much.

Julie Stewart: Matthew, we’ll now go to our final analyst question.

Operator: Certainly. Your last question is coming Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Your line is live.