In its most recent quarter, Dell’s revenue totaled $14.3 billion, down 11% from same period a year ago. It was still better than the $14.1 billion analysts were expecting.
Sales dropped sharply in most categories, including notebooks, desktops, and third-party software and peripherals, with enterprise sales being the only bright spot. Dell’s earnings stood at $530 million in the latest three months, down more than 31% from $764 million in the year-earlier quarter.
Despite these morbid numbers, the stock did not show any signs of selling pressure. What is driving the stock is also interesting, and the private/public debate has a strong bearing on Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) shares’ movement.
The market is clearly divided into two factions – one with a bearish undercurrent, and another which believes that the company’s stock price provides a far higher discount to its business fundamentals than it deserves. Not long ago, the bear cartel had an upper hand, but things have changed dramatically after Dell’s recent decision to go private in a $24.4 billion deal.
There is little doubt that Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) still represents immense value; however, it is debatable whether that value is high enough to carry out a buyback. Management certainly feels that a privately held Dell is more valuable than a publicly held one.
The street, till last quarter, believed Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) was on its way to become another Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) and thus was stripped of premium valuations. This was logical in view of the rapidly shrinking margins and falling sales. It is not that the world around Dell is crumbling, but the company remains at the receiving end invariably.
According to market research firm Gartner, global personal computer shipments dropped 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012 as more smartphones and tablets replace traditional computers for many tasks. However, the decline was sharper at Dell — 21%. HPQ’s shipments experienced a marginal drop of 0.5%, while supercomputer maker Cray, which does not reveal number of shipments, witnessed a 2.6% drop in Q3 revenues. However, the decline was sharper for Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL), including an 11% drop in revenues.
What has changed in recent months? Now, there is a buyer at higher rates, which has instilled confidence in smaller investors. Michael Dell’s enthusiasm for taking the company private is understandable but Silver Lake’s involvement is noteworthy as private equity companies usually are not known for holding their investments for long. It is not surprising if Michael Dell harbors plans of eventually buying out its private equity partner a couple of years down the line.
Dell’s strong footing in Enterprise business is a shot in the arm, but a constant stream of newer players means existing companies cannot charge a premium. With more and more retail buyers shifting to tablets and smartphones, and given Dell’s absence in these segments, it is difficult to see a long term upside for the business, even if held privately, away from public scrutiny.
The article Dell Q4 Results to Impact LBO Plan? originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Jacob Wolinsky.
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