Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Thanks, Jerry.

Operator: Thank you. The next question is from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. You may go ahead.

Rob Wertheimer: Hi, thank you. I just wanted to circle back to decremental margin and large ag. I think the production precision is more like 38% versus 35%, obviously, not a huge difference, but I was curious if there’s any mixed headwind within that segment or R&D and actually curious how you interpret what sounds like a more negative kind of combine early order program versus some of the others, is that a shift in time, is that a timeline specific cycle, is that – how do you interpret that differential if there is one and is that kind of what’s dragging down on the margin? Thank you, any outlook?

Brent Norwood: Yes, thanks, Rob, for the question. Regarding our decrementals for next year, I think, I mean, there’s a number of things to get consider. We are seeing a significant double-digit volume decline in our shipments. While at the same time, we tell our R&D investment relatively flat-to-up a little bit next year as we intend to invest somewhat consistently through cycle here. As you think about sort of the mix impact, that’s having on our decremental, certainly with combines down more than the group average, that certainly a little bit of a negative mix headwind there. And I would say over the last few years, we’ve seen profitability in Brazil approach, our North America margins. And so that market being down more than the entire segment average also is a little bit of a mix headwind and this is where our focus on cost management is really helping us can maintain our traditional decrementals because with those, but those mix headwinds, it would be difficult to do otherwise.

Specific to combines, in terms of why is that down more than the group segment, combines have a slightly shorter useful life than other farm other piece of farm equipment. And so over the last two years to three years, we saw the fleet age come down more in combines than tractors. And right now the fleet age is about in-line with long-term averages. And so I think that’s given producers a little more discretion on their combined CapEx decisions going into next year.

Josh Jepsen: Yes maybe, Rob, great question. This is Josh, one thing to add, at the same time, we mentioned R&D and we’re also investing in parts of the business like our business model transformation and how we build-out. You can go-to-market plans there. Overtime, we expect that will drive more stable business better margin as we deliver on that and grow that at scale. I think in the near-term, we are building out and investing in it knowing the benefits that can deliver here as we go through the balance of the decade. So thanks, Rob. And so I think we have time for one last caller.

Operator: Thank you. Our last question comes from Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson. You may go ahead.

Mike Shlisky: Hi, good morning. Happy Thanksgiving and thanks for taking my question here. A very simple one, just a little bit more granularity on your comments about this being a mid-cycle year in 2024. I guess I want to know, are all three segments looking to be mid cycle through fiscal 2024, the margin implications for each segment also about where it should be at mid-cycle as well. Just kind of your thoughts on whether any segment will be below or above mid cycle and kind of balanced out by the other one? Thank you.

Brent Norwood: Hi Mike, Happy Thanksgiving to you as well. I would say broadly segments are somewhat close to mid-cycle. I think production and precision ag is probably the closest construction and forestry, running a little bit higher in small ag and turf, a little bit lower is sort of a directional breakdown there. And. I think for us as we think about structural profitability. We measure that at similar points in the cycle across a long period of time. And so for us, we look at 2024 is a good proxy for mid-cycle, we would compare that to 2019 would be the last year. Our businesses, we’re running around the same level of volume and so. We’re pleased that we can generate 2.5x times the net income at these levels. You know. And given the mix is, most of them are close to closer to mid-cycle than not we feel like it’s a pretty good example of what we can deliver at mid-cycle volumes.

Josh Jepsen: Yes, Mike, this is Josh. I think just maybe to add-on what Brent mentioned. I think importantly here. What we can deliver here at near mid cycle. Is fundamentally different than how we performed in the past. We’re talking about roughly $8 billion of net income, $28, $29 of EPS. You can compare that back to 2013, a period we often get compared to, and we are significantly better than that point in time and. I think that’s important because you’re seeing a significant shift in terms of. How we mid cycle. Obviously, you saw how well we performed in ’23. I think the implication is. At the bottom of the cycle, we would expect to perform significantly better than we have in the past as well. So, we’re excited about the opportunities ahead of us.