Jason Seidl: Okay, next question. Jonathan, I think you talked about an expected rebound and to sort of be at peak rates back to peak 2022 rates in 2024. And I think you said you expect like another big year for trucking if you will in 2025, what sort of behind those numbers for you guys when you make those forecasts out?
Jonathan Shepko: Yeah, I think we have looked at a number of the past cycles. And as I mentioned to Bert, I mean, we look at these and look at them as really three to four year cycles. And, if we look at — if we try to overlay the cycle that we’re currently in and a lot of different things floating around. But, we think it generally is going to track what you saw in 2015, kind of the industrial recession, right. You had about 18 months, it’s kind of uplift 18 to 24 months of uplift, leaning at peak in kind of summer of 2015 again, and that was on the heels of the trough where you had back in 2011, you had everybody worried about the debt ceiling, you had to downgrade U.S. debt, you had the kind of the sovereign debt issues around the world, quantitative easing all that and people got nervous and things tanked and they quickly came back, and it ultimately peaked in 2015.
And you had to kind of fall down into that winter of about 10% or so. And then you had your normal seasonality, so you got some of that back. And then the next winter, so going into 2016, you kind of filled out some more into that 2015, that summer 2015 peak to the trough. In winter of 2016, you were down about 15%. And again, if you look at these cycles, they typically average peak to trough about 10% to 15%. The only cycle that we’ve seen that exceeded that was the Great Recession, where it was closer to 20% to 22%. But again, 80% to 90% of those rates you got back within 12 months. So we look at that and go, okay, we think that the kind of characteristics and the drivers of the cycle are different, but we look at where we’re at today and go, we kind of feel like we’re on that same type of cycle where you have a slow 18 month fall down, you do still have seasonality, you kind of peak in winter, which for us will probably be winter of 2023, and then you’ll have kind of a firming up to where by, by early to mid-2024, you will be at 2022 peaks again, and you’ll have a runway, you’ll have going to have a continued runway from there on out back up to a new peak in 2025.
And again, who really knows, but we’ve done a lot of work again on looking at cycles and that’s our thesis, that could obviously change depending on what the Fed does. I think there’s a lot of noise in data when you look through data. Cautiously optimistic that they don’t overtighten. A little bit concerned about some of the takeaways with this last jobs report and how the Fed Reserve interprets those. And again, you had 21 million jobs lost as part of the kind of COVID effects of 15% of our workforce is taken out. And if you look at employment trends, adjusted for population growth, we’re still 3 million to 4 million jobs short, where we would have otherwise been had that employment trends continued. So I think that when the Fed looks at this and said it’s a hot jobs market, everything else, I think we’re still way behind.
