If you look at that and say so it’s about a 10% CAGR, so 10% CAGR over those three years in rate and rate increases. Historically, we’ve seen those rate increases tracked to CPI so about 2.5% a year. Year in and year out saying okay, well you guys are — you guys are massively up. I think that the counterpoint to that, the credible counterpoint to that is, is if your inflation adjusts. If inflation adjust, a lot of those rates were probably flat to maybe even down. If you look at diesel prices having nearly doubled, if you look at driver wages increasing 30 plus percent. If you look at things like maintenance costs or tires increasing 50% to 60%, lubricants, things like that, and you truly adjust — you adjust rates based on an inflation adjusted basis, you get to kind of a real rate growth.
I think we’re flat to down. So I think that you’ve got a bunch of embedded costs, that you’re simply not going to walk back. And if you do, you’re going to blow up the supply side of the equation for your shippers. So, we think that things are starting to stabilize, and we’re cautiously optimistic again that 2023 is going to be good with a really strong rebound in 2024.
Greg Gibas: Got it, very helpful. Thanks so much.
Operator: Thank you and one moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl with Craig-Hallum. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Ryan Sigdahl: Good morning, guys. Just one for me at this point. What do you guys think is the maintenance, right maintenance CAPEX level because if I look at kind of DNA over the past couple of years 90ish million CAPEX, including all finance costs was about 145 million last year, and then a little bit more than that this year in 2023. So curious 10 as we think about fully baked free cash flow, what the right maintenance capex number is? And then secondly, how confident are you in generating free cash flow? Again, inclusive of all equipment purchases, that 150 million to CAPEX?
Aaron Coley: Yeah, thanks, Ryan. So we’ll talk a little bit about your first question, which is on the maintenance CAPEX. And so our guide for this year is 145 to 155, which includes debt net of proceeds. And so the right way to think about our CAPEX is this year we’ve got about 8 million to 10 million of transformational CAPEX. We’re lightening up trailers, for a one-time event, and then we’ve got about 5 million that we’re buying some specialized trailers for one of our verticals, to pull forward, so we can be in a good position for our renewable energy vertical. And so this year is a little bit of a down CAPEX for us. We’re pretty happy with where our trucks are at. We think one of the ways to measure those is on miles. And so we’re two and a half, or two to two and a half times, two and a half years on a mileage bases.
So we’re pretty happy with where our overall fleet is. And outlook number on replacement, given our current profile and truck count is probably 130 million to 140 million for an outlet outlook perspective. That’s kind of how we think about that piece of it.
