D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Again, is there an ability to take orders that is similar to the third quarter level if you see the demand there? And I would assume you’d be just as interested in taking as much share as you can. Or going back to an earlier question as well, is there any type of production constraints that might hold you back there a little bit?

Jessica Hansen: Sure, Mike. So, I mean, we’re not in this for quarterly results. We’re in this for the long term and to build as much shareholder value as we can over the long term. So, quarter to quarter to quarter, as you’ve heard David say over and over, we’re focused on being consistent, and, as we’ve talked about, it’s all tied to our starts pace. So, we’re not managing to a sales number in Q4. If the market’s there and our cycle times continue to improve, we might be able to see a little bit better than normal seasonality. If the market were to weaken for some reason or we don’t get as many homes started ultimately, it could be less than normal seasonality. Right now, we feel like we’re positioned to increase our starts slightly from where we were in Q3.

And also, as we’ve talked about, our construction cycle times have continued to improve and our flag count has grown. So, we feel like we’re very well-positioned. But frankly, we’re more focused on positioning for ’24 at this point than we are worried about Q4. I mean, we’re going to finish out the year very strong and generate strong returns and continue to add to book value and position ourselves to go do the same in 2024.

Mike Rehaut: Okay. I appreciate that. I guess, maybe then turning to ’24, when you look at your backlog conversion at the beginning of the year relative to what you deliver, at best, you kind of hit a 4 times — maybe low 4 times turnover. In other words, your backlog turned over 4 times in terms of the amount of closings you were able to achieve. The height was in 2020 at 4.8 times. It looks like, on a rough basis, you’d probably be closer to 5 times or above, maybe even 6 times, given where potentially your backlog could be at the end of this fiscal year. So, given the fact that you’re looking for community count growth, is it still reasonable to expect kind of a high-single or even low-double digit closings growth number for next year, or, again, just given the physical constraints of turnover and other — the fact that cycle times are improving, but not back to where they were, any other items to consider?

Bill Wheat: Sure, Mike. As we’re looking to fiscal ’24, we’re — and we’ve talked about this before. We always try to position ourselves with our lot position, with our homes and inventory so that we are in a position to deliver close to a double-digit growth, high-single, 10% type growth. And so, that’s what we’re doing again, is positioning our inventory so that we’re in the position there in the market that we see today. I think it’s there for us if we can get our lot positions and our homes in inventory ready for that. And with improved cycle times, that helps us improve our inventory turnover. And I think we focus a lot more on our inventory turn, our inventory conversion than we do backlog. Backlog is just really just a factor of when we choose to sign a sales contract on a home.

We focus on our starts pace, what homes we have in inventory, and then we adjust when we’re going to release those for sale based on when we have confidence that we can deliver that home. So, every home we start, we will close. And if we’re turning those faster, then that will improve the inventory turnover and improve — honestly, improves your visibility to see what our closings are going to be as well. So it’s really about our starts pace, our inventory positioning, and then how efficiently can we turn that.

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