CubeSmart (NYSE:CUBE) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

We don’t expect any of our Cube stores to be impacted by new supply in ’23. In Brooklyn, we’re getting closer to the end. And I think that’s part of the narrative of continued improvement throughout 2023. I think there’s one new opening in ’23 that will compete with an existing Cube. And then Queens, I think we’ll continue to have declining, but there will be an impact in 2023 on our stores. I think there are 2 new openings in Queens that will — that we expect to have an impact on an existing CubeSmart. So as I said in the opening remarks, that’s really starting to wane and we’re very excited about the future there.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Spenser Allaway with Green Street Advisors.

Spenser Allaway: Can you provide a little color on what’s being underwritten for occupancy at both the high and low end of guidance?

Chris Marr: Yes, Spenser, we don’t normally, again, broken record guidance — occupancy rather, is the output, not the input. I think we got browbeat last year into throwing out a number as to where we finished the end of the year. And as Tim noted, we beat that by a pretty good amount. So it will depend. I think the expectation and for the new pool is that will range from occupancy being down 150 basis points to what it was in the prior year, and then that will narrow as we go throughout the year. And I think we’ll end the year within 50 basis points or so of where we ended in 2022 on that new pool.

Spenser Allaway: And then maybe just circling back to supply again for a second. Maybe without focusing on NOI expectations, but can you just comment on whether there are any markets that stand out as more concerning due to current pricing power in those markets or current occupancy levels of utilization.

Chris Marr: Yes. I think the impact of supply both the volume of new stores and then the brands of those new stores and their approach to how they want to lease those stores up will likely we felt the most in our portfolio in the greater Philadelphia area, where it is, in fact, sunny today in Malvern; the Washington, D.C. area; and then pockets of Northern Virginia — I’m sorry, pockets of Northern New Jersey.

Operator: The next question comes from Alina Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

Juan Sanabria: Just wanted to hit on the cadence of growth? And is — should we expect as you report the quarters that growth will accelerate or decelerate throughout the year? And if you can comment within a subset of that, how New York would fare as part of that answer.

Chris Marr: Yes. I think for our portfolio and then as you’re trying to look at, obviously, rates of growth, so comparing to what the cadence was in 2022, we would expect that our same-store revenue growth will be at its peak in terms of the growth in Q1 and then a steady deceleration as we go out through 2023. . Obviously, we have the most clarity into Q1 and the least clarity into the Q4 results. So we’ll see how the busy season starts out and progresses here. For New York City, the overall trend would be consistent with that, just that again, we would expect that market will then end up outperforming on a relative basis, the overall pool as we get into the back half of the year.