Crown Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CCK) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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And — but I don’t know if — I don’t know if I can project it. The population is extremely young. And so as you think about the next decade with a young population, the opportunity for growth is — for continued growth is there. But I can’t sit here today and project for you when that’s going to — when we expect Vietnam to recover. I wouldn’t expect it stays down for all of next year. Will it recover by this time next year? I don’t know.

Jeff Zekauskas: Thank you so much.

Timothy Donahue: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we have a question on the line from Phil Ng from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Phil Ng: Hey, Tim.

Timothy Donahue: Hi, Phil.

Phil Ng: I’m shock it took half an hour to get a GLP-1 question so far, but I appreciate the insights you offer, Tim, on the subject matter.

Timothy Donahue: Well, listen Phil, I don’t — I just find it hard to believe that anybody who has watched consumption levels of food products by Americans, we actually believe that any drug is going to have an impact on American’s desires to eat the food they want to eat and drink and gather and have a good time. Maybe from time to time, somebody wants to trim 10 pounds off and maybe there are some people that really need to lose weight because of diabetes or something else. But listen, this is — we’re talking about a $120 billion can market. This is a spec on the market. This is remarkable to me that it’s gotten this far.

Phil Ng: Well, I guess, more importantly, if I heard you correctly, Tim, you’re expecting North America, your business to be up 7%, and you’re calling for a similar growth profile in 2024. So help us…

Timothy Donahue: Phil, what I said was that the absolute level of cans would be up by the same amount next year, the percentages are down because the base is higher, right?

Phil Ng: Okay. So can you help size what that percent would imply then, I guess? And what’s driving that? Are you assuming a flattish market or is it — or you’re seeing share gains like you’ve seen this year as well?

Timothy Donahue: We’ll quantify it for you in February, early February, but I would tell you that there’s share gain combined with — we believe the market is going to continue to grow. We believe the customers are going to continue to promote cans in support of their sustainability efforts as well as the unique features of the can, which — for stackability, filling speeds, transport, etc., that the can is just a — it is a remarkable product. There’s certainly no doubt about that.

Phil Ng: I mean, I guess the great thing is it sounds like you’ve locked up pricing. So you got good line of sight there too as well. I guess pivoting to your two more economically sensitive businesses, and to be clear, you’ve managed Transit exceptionally well this year. But from a volume standpoint and quoting and bidding activity, how has that progressed for aerosol and Transit so far this year?

Timothy Donahue: Well, aerosol — aerosol is just — across the board, aerosol is down. We’ve got some segments of our aerosol business. It’s a small business, right, but we’ve got some segments of the business which are up, maybe automotive and some of the other DOT-sensitive products. But for the most part, air fresheners, bug sprays, shave creams, down across the board. Transit, listen, it’s a — we’ve had a hard time getting the investor community, and we’ve had a hard time getting the analyst community to appreciate the benefit of a business that generates anywhere between 13% to 15%, 16% here in the third quarter, requires almost no capital, has a cash conversion rate of 85% plus. And year in and year out, delivers unlevered cash flow in excess of $300 million, right.

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