Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Todd Brooks: Okay. And one quick follow-up just on that last point. If I look at the change in the annual revenue guidance, kind of taking the low end down to up 6% from up 7% prior year coming off a quarter that was in line with expectations. You spoke to potentially returning strength in that 65 plus customer why are we dropping the low end of the guidance from where we were revenue wise at the end of the fiscal year? Thanks.

Craig Pommells: It’s a great — it’s a very good question. The underlying reason is volatility. So what we’ve seen so far this fiscal year that started in August is a really strong start to the year. August, September, particularly strong. October softened and November has been doing better than our expectations. So in aggregate, we’re feeling confident in our top line estimates. But at the same time, the range of performance has increased. And I think that’s a function of just the news that folks are getting and what they’re experiencing in their pocket books and gas prices has been moving around generally down, but the news about what’s happening in the grocery stores and so on. This is causing a greater level of volatility in results. So as a result, we think the range is a little bit broader, even though we continue to believe in our overall expectation.

Todd Brooks: Okay. That’s helpful. Thanks, Craig.

Operator: The next question comes from Jake Bartlett with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Jake Bartlett: Great. Thanks for taking the question. My first one was just a clarification of November. And Craig, in the context of that volatility, I’m wondering whether November outside of Thanksgiving, how that looked? I mean was — I’m just wondering whether November was solid because of Thanksgiving and maybe the rest was a little more wobbly. Any detail there would be helpful.

Craig Pommells: Absolutely, Jake. Good question. So what we saw with November, and I’ll speak — I’ll go back to the entire first quarter in August that were very strong. October softened. And November — within November, we did have really good performance as it relates to our holiday business, our catering business. Our dining business was a little bit softer than expectation, but it had improved from the prior month. So again, this kind of goes to the overall theme of volatility. In aggregate, we’re feeling confident in the overall top line, but there is movement underneath that. So in aggregate, for dine-in, it’s still a little bit below expectations, but that it improved from the prior period.

Jake Bartlett: Great. And then I had a question just in terms of that kind of the matures and the boomers and that higher age cohort, improving a little bit. Just noting that the social security adjustment being up 8.7% in ’23. How much of the benefit do you think that could be for Cracker Barrel? And maybe in the answer to that, I’m hoping you can give us a update on what percentage of sales of those older — that older cohort accounts for my impression was about 50% just historically, but if you could just confirm or deny that, that would be great.

Jennifer Tate: Hey, Jake. It’s Jen. I would say, in general, our 65 plus guests in spite of things like that social security increase are still we’re seeing all-time lows or near all-time lows with their sentiment. And I think that with pressure in terms of food, gas and rent and all of that being up significantly more, right? Food inflation in the grocery store is up 20%. So — and gas prices, although they’re low today, it’s been incredibly volatile, up, down, up, down. And so their sentiment is very negative. Their outlook for the future. Their financial and security is very high. So I think even though we have seen some improvement in our trend with our 65 plus guests, there is still quite a bit of recovery left for us with that group.

I don’t — I’m not going to get into the exact percentages, but you’re way off, right? It’s not quite that high, and it’s not quite that. It’s not quite that high, and it has come down. I think the group we’re seeing the most increase with is the younger generation. So for the last several quarters, we’ve seen an increase in frequency with younger guests, in particular, with the 18 to 34 year old, and we think that is really in part due to the strategic initiatives we’ve been undertaking, whether that is the culinary and beverage news, the increased focus on targeted digital marketing or the technology enhancements that we’ve done for them we’re seeing a sustained improvement with that group as well.