Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVLG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Jack Atkins: Okay. No, all that makes sense, and I really appreciate all the commentary, David, thank you for that, too. I guess maybe just last question, David, and I’ll hand it over. I’d love to get your take on this. because you’ve seen a lot of cycles over your career for such a young man. But I guess you sort of think about just capacity attrition in the market. You talked about rates being at 1990 levels in certain markets. But it doesn’t really feel like we’ve really seen a lot of capacity come out yet, at least from what we can tell. I guess how do you see the capacity situation playing out over the next 6 months or so? What do you think needs to happen to really trigger that sort of attrition that we would normally expect to see with rates at these levels?

David Parker: Yes. I think going forward, that we will see the reduction in capacity because I think that what has happened thus far, I mean if you look at new DOT numbers, it’s negative. And so there is not new trucking entries coming into the marketplace. That’s number one. But I do think what’s happened, Jack, is that the folks that just grew — I mean, not good, but came into the market in the spot and Holland $450 a mile, those were onesie, Tuesday trucks. Those are — somebody has got 3 trucks and not many. Those trucks have left that you and I have not felt it yet because they’ve been to drivers for me or truck drivers for Warner drug drivers for you, they just started driving company trucks. And so we still got the same amount of capacity.

And so I think that’s where the market is today. but 2 plus 2 does equal 4, you can’t haul 1990 rates with cost in 2022, 2023 cost and think you’re going to stay in business. So I think in the next couple of months, we will see a rush of capacity that is going because all of us truckload guys, our trucks are full virtually. They’re virtually full. And so that’s what I think you’ll start seeing capacity leaving in the next couple of quarters.

Paul Bunn: Yes, Jack. It’s going to — the ones that made a lot of money had some capital to hold on for a little while. But again, you can’t run at some of these rates forever, and I won’t mention the vendors, but I’ve talked to a couple of vendors in the last few weeks that deal with big truckers and small truckers. And they’re small trucker delinquency rates or people hitting their credit limits is it’s getting there to a spot where eventually — I don’t think we’re going to wake up one day and say, well, capacity left yesterday. But over a 6- to 9-month period, you’re going to see it trend down. And again, that’s some of that’s just talking from vendors that deal with big truckers and little truckers and their credit departments are pretty worried right now.

Jack Atkins: Really appreciate it.

Operator: And our next question comes from Bert Subin from Stifel.

Bert Subin: Thank you for the time. David, maybe just a follow-up to some of the comments there. I think if I go back a few quarters, you’ve been communicating a more bearish position toward future freight market fundamentals. So your comments, I think there maybe indicate you’re starting to become more optimistic at least about where things are trending even if we go through a little bit of a dip here in the first half. Does that make you from the covenant perspective, want to be more aggressive during the downturn? And in terms of trying to put your finger to the wind in terms of when the market is starting to turn, is it as simple as you as what your customers are saying or looking at the spot market? When do you think it really becomes more risk on in the trucking side?