Could This Safe Play Help Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)?

There’s also GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) (NYSE:GSK)’s late-stage albiglutide, which has achieved mixed results. Albiglutide lowered blood sugar better than Januvia and Sanofi’s Amaryl, but underperformed Victoza. The drug also caused more gastrointestinal side effects in patients than Takeda’s Actos.

GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) (NYSE:GSK)’s drug seems too weak to provide much of a threat to Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY). But the popularity of Lantus could make Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE:SNY)’s candidate more of a player. But let’s go back to how much an Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY) victory would really matter to the company.

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)’s drug dependence

The patent cliff has come for some of Eli Lilly’s top products. Blockbuster atypical antipsychotic Zyprexa fell off the cliff last year. The $5 billion antidepressant Cymbalta loses protection later this year, and the $1 billion osteoporosis drug Evista follows next year.

And Lilly’s pipeline hasn’t fared much better, recently turning into a scrap pile for cancelled Alzheimer’s and rheumatoid arthritis drugs. But the four late-stage diabetes projects have turned up better results. These include the long-acting insulin LY2963016, which is currently under review with the European Medicine’s Agency.

Foolish final thoughts

Eli Lilly stands a better chance than Sanofi or Glaxo in securing a position in the GLP-1 market. The drug might achieve similar sales as Bydureon shortly after launch. But if the Victoza trial results lean in dulaglutide’s favor, the drug will have more room to grow.

How much would the win matter for Lilly? The patent cliff weakened portfolio and faltering CNS pipeline could use any help they could get — even if that comes from a modestly performing diabetes drug.

Brandy Betz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Brandy is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network — entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.

The article Could This Safe Play Help Eli Lilly? originally appeared on Fool.com is written by Brandy Betz.

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