Corteva, Inc. (NYSE:CTVA) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And after two years of high levels of input cost inflation, we expect to see low single-digit deflation in Crop Protection raw material costs. Productivity and cost actions in both Seed and Crop Protection combined with input cost deflation, are expected to add approximately $300 million of benefits. We expect an increase in SG&A spend in 2024, driven by normalized bad debt and compensation accruals. We’ll also continue to invest in the future with increased investment in R&D, which is expected to now be approximately 8% of sales. And finally, the Biologicals franchise is expected to add approximately $90 million of operating EBITDA with improved margins in 2024. Regarding the timing of sales and earnings in 2024, we’re expecting over 60% of sales and roughly 80% of EBITDA to be delivered in the first half of the year.

We also expect to see a timing difference between the first two quarters versus prior year due primarily to the strength of Crop Protection in the first quarter of 2023. You’ll recall that Crop Protection’s first quarter 2023 was prior to the significant impact of channel inventory destocking. For Seed, we’re assuming a normal delivery pattern in the Northern Hemisphere, which could shift significantly between first and second quarter depending on weather conditions. With 2024 guidance in mind, let’s go to Slide 11 to review the key drivers of earnings growth in 2024 and 2025. And as Chuck said, we’ve adjusted the 2025 financial framework based on our actual results for 2023 and the expectation for continued earnings growth and margin expansion in both 2024 and 2025.

Now, in 2023, we delivered an incremental $800 million in EBITDA versus 2021. Given the market dynamics in 2023, this was no small feat and clearly differentiates us from our peers. We have a plan to generate an approximate $800 million of additional EBITDA growth by 2025, which translates to low double-digit compound annual growth rate between 2023 and 2025. A number of the drivers of our anticipated performance of about $4.2 billion of EBITDA and 22% margin in 2025 are within our control. We’ve demonstrated our price for value strategy in Seed and we expect this strategy to continue. Our royalty neutrality strategy delivered more than $200 million in benefits in 2023 alone and is going to add another $100 million per year in both 2024 and 2025.

What’s even more exciting is that we’re starting to see benefits from our out-licensing business as we migrate a greater portion of our portfolio to our own proprietary technology and we expect that to meaningfully grow in the next decade. The rebalance in the Crop Protection industry will take some time. We expect it to be achieved by 2025, but underlying demand and applications at the farm gate remains solid. The differentiated portions of our Crop Protection portfolio, including our new products, together with its Spinosyns franchise and our Biologicals franchise, will continue to outpace market growth in 2024. The differentiation will also protect our business from the most severe elements of pricing competition, which are largely in the non-differentiated portions of the industry.

Now, we delivered more than $315 million of combined productivity and cost actions in 2023 across the business. And our plan is to deliver another $200 million per year in both 2024 and 2025, and this does not include an additional improved net royalty or the deflation benefit that we anticipate will grow into 2025. Importantly, we’ll also continue to invest more in R&D and our future innovation. With that, let’s go to Slide 12 and transition to the setup for 2025 and the assumptions included in the base case as well as what could drive EBITDA to the low and high end of the range. Now, in both 2024 and 2025, we expect low single-digit Seed pricing, driven by demand for yield advantage technology. One of the biggest variables in our assumptions is how much growth we’ll see in the Crop Protection business, given the current market imbalance.

While on-farm demand remains relatively consistent, we’re not assuming a significant rebound in the market. New and differentiated products, including Biologicals, would drive much of the Crop Protection growth in 2024 and 2025, as we move towards differentiation in two-thirds of the Crop Protection portfolio. In 2024, we expect to see modest input cost inflation in Crop Protection with Seed costs relatively flat. By 2025, we expect to see more benefit from cost deflation in both Seed and Crop Protection. Our assumptions include increased SG&A due to normalization of bad debt and compensation accruals as well as increased investment in R&D, as we reach our target of 8% of sales. Together, we have a balanced set of assumptions, which gives us confidence in our ability to grow earnings and margins out to 2025 and beyond in both Seed and Crop Protection.

So with that, let’s go to Slide 13 and summarize the key takeaways. First, full year operating EBITDA performance for 2023 was in line with expectations, led by the strength of the Seed business and we’re able to grow EBITDA by 5%. Self-help levers helped improve operating margin by roughly 115 basis points. And importantly, this is going to continue into 2024 and into 2025. The bottom line is that our guidance for this year and the setup for next year 2025 that we shared with you today reflects continued earnings and margin growth, much of which is in our control. And finally, the significant financial strength and balance sheet flexibility give us confidence in our ability to continue to grow and supports our track record of returning cash to shareholders.