Core & Main, Inc. (NYSE:CNM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Mark Witkowski: Yes, thanks for the question. Yes, if you look at the addressable market, I’d say the primary factor for that growth over that period has been the increase in prices that we’ve seen. As we talked about the end market for 2022 was relatively flat given the softer residential environment we experienced in particular in the back half of the €˜22. And we’ve continued to take share gains while we’ve seen that market expand and that’s come through various forms. Obviously, the acquisitions that we’ve done, expansion into the erosion control geosynthetic space. The local share gains, we believe we’ve taken a lot of share primarily in these local markets by having access to products and then expanding the products that we’ve got available for our customers.

And then our sales initiatives with our strategic accounts in particular has allowed us to take some nice share gains over this period. So those are the main factors and continue to strive towards being the primary leader in the space.

Vivek Srivastava: Thanks, that’s helpful. And maybe just jumping on to your non-residential exposure. Can you share how much of your non-res, I think 39% of your sales is non-res? How much of it is more institution exposed versus more commercial exposed? Because, really, what we’re trying to size is their lending risk is probably more on the commercial side suggest. Any color on how much of that is — that’s strictly commercial?

Mark Witkowski: Yes, we’ve got a pretty balanced mix in the non-residential end market. Some area obviously commercial is part of it, institutional spend is in there, some industrial that we’ve seen a lot of good growth as well with warehouse data centers. Also in non-resi, we have some multifamily exposure we put in there, as well as some very, I’d say, non-cyclical road and bridge work. So a lot of our storm drainage product that goes into road construction sits in our non-residential end markets. So it’s pretty well diversified across the board, which is one of the primary reasons why we think that market is going to hold and be pretty stable into €˜23 despite some of the headwinds that we know are out there.

Vivek Srivastava: Thank you.

Mark Witkowski: Yes, thanks.

Operator: Thank you. And the next question is from the line of Anthony Pettinari of Citi. Anthony, your line is now open.

Asher Sohnen: Hi. This is Asher Sohnen on for Anthony. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to just clarify, what I think, I heard respond to another question just in terms of the cadence of sort of EBITDA margin if you’re guiding from maybe 150 basis points to 200 basis points decline? On the full-year, I think, I heard maybe 3Q is where the year-over-year decline start to really pick up. Is that correct?

Mark Witkowski: Well, I think as you look at the comps related to 2022, that was one of our higher EBITDA margin quarters was Q3. But I think as you think about the cadence of that reset really starting in Q1, into Q2. And then the bigger headwind just given the comp is Q3. So if that helps a little just kind of think about the cadences that plays out in ’23.

Asher Sohnen: No, that’s really helpful. And my second question, so you got it, so I think 80% to 100%, sort of, operating cash flow conversion in €˜23, which is obviously higher than your long-term 55% to 65% target. So I’m just wondering what’s driving that delta? Is it just the reversal and some inventory investments you made? And then longer term, is there any opportunity to kind of maybe sustain new tie levels of cash conversion?

Mark Witkowski: Yes, you’re right on the operating cash flow relative to our long-term target, we do expect that to be higher in €˜23 and that’s primarily due to the inventory optimization that we expect to occur beginning in Q1 and into the selling season. So inventory is the biggest part of it receivables have been in good shape, good quality, receivable base. And that’s really the main factor there. I’d say the longer term is there opportunity that’s something that we’ll continue to evaluate as we get our inventory rightsized and optimizing 23%, but I’d say that 55% to 65% is still a good target to think about long-term.

Asher Sohnen: Great. Thank you so much. I’ll turn it over.

Mark Witkowski: Yes. Thanks.

Operator: The next question today is from the line of Matthew Bouley of Barclays. Matthew, please go ahead.

Elizabeth Langan: Good morning. You have Elizabeth Langan on for Matt today. Just kind of looking at your guide of fiscal 2023, the commentary around pricing was really helpful, but I was wondering if you could speak to maybe like your embedded expectations for like the path of demand through the year and maybe like how that plays with volume. Like, the implications for volume. And, you know, if you could break that out maybe first-half, second-half, that’d be helpful?

Mark Witkowski: Yes. I would say in terms of the cadence for volume, again, just kind of looking back to 2022 in terms of where we had really difficult comps, meaning really strong performance last year, Q1 was probably one of our stronger year-over-year volume quarters. So comping against that this year, I think it’s going to be a difficult hurdle to hit. So as you just think about kind of year-over-year cadence, I’d say Q1 expecting a little softer relative to where we’ve been in €˜22. And then kind of getting back on to normal kind of seasonal increases into Q2 and Q3 like we’ve had in the past and then Q4 again will be a typical seasonal quarter sequentially from Q3 to Q4. I would typically expect that to ramp down.

Elizabeth Langan: Okay. Thank you. And then on non-res as we’re kind of seeing like larger projects roll through the channel and onshoring trends, how are you thinking about those opportunities? And could you maybe touch on your ability to work with contractors and provide value-added services? And if there are any verticals that are — you think that you’re specifically advantaged to serve within those?

Steve LeClair: Sure, Elizabeth, I think when you look at some of the trends that have been happening here with onshoring, certainly industrial and manufacturing growth has been really strong for us, and when we look at our — particularly our fire protection products, one of the value-add we do there is really working with the designers and the engineers on prefabbing and kitting a lot of the fire protection assemblies, so that they can be put on — on-site and assembled on-site rather than fabricated on-site. And so our ability to be able to do that and respond quickly for construction needs has been really second to none. And we’ve handled projects as large as full stadiums down to smaller warehouses, et cetera. So I think that’s an area where we feel really well positioned to be able to capitalize that over the medium and long-term for sure.

Elizabeth Langan: Thank you. That’s all for me.