Lucas Pipes: Great. Very helpful. I really appreciate all the color this morning and continue best of luck. Thank you.
Operator: The next question comes from Nathan Martin with the Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.
Nathan Martin: Thanks, operator. Good morning guys. Appreciate you taking the questions. I also just wanted to round out the question on full year ’23. Like sales guidance in particular I think Lucas just mentioned, the implication is 6.8 million tons at the midpoint in the fourth quarter. But can you kind of talk about what gets you to the high or low end of that guidance range? It sounds like those inventory shipments have mostly moved, but that would just be great to have a little more color there. Thanks.
Jimmy Brock: I think the inventory that we had been shipped is certainly going to help those numbers. And we’re — as long as we have the planned longwall move, we have one of those in Q4 here. But thus far, things are going well for us. We do have that fifth wall. And as long as we can continue to ship that out, we’re seeing some increased customer demand here domestically that Bobby talked about that will help. And I think, we certainly have — we do have the holidays that we have and we have that last week of shutdown, but we feel pretty good where we are from a production standpoint and to have the opportunity to run even higher to those numbers, we would have to run some of those holidays or just have the operations running really well and a quicker longwall move than we have planned. But all of those are opportunities that are in front of us.
Mitesh Thakkar: And just to add to it, the inventory situation that we talked about, it’s not about inventory lying on the ground not sold. It’s already sold coal that just because of the timing of the vessels and shipments just moved from third quarter to the fourth quarter, that inventory has gone as we speak here today.
Nathan Martin: Perfect. And then just maybe on the logistics side, how are things cooperating from a rail and port and maybe even thinking about labor as well from those standpoints.
Jimmy Brock : Yes. I think we’re dual served by both rails. And I think they’re performing okay, we haven’t had any real issues out of them. We always expect some shipments to move around a little bit. But the railcars have been pretty good for us thus far.
Bob Braithwaite : Yes. I mean think about it, Nate, I mean look at the shift, right? I mean, we’re talking about moving potentially 19 million tons through our terminal, which about 16 million of that will be from PAMC just this year.
Nathan Martin : Got it. And then maybe just a higher-level longer-term question. It would be great to get your thoughts guys around CONSOL’s ability to kind of maintain that 26 million-ton plus or minus shipment run rate over the next several years.
Jimmy Brock : We used 26 million tons Nate our base. And as you well know, we’ve run as high as 27.4 [ph] we run to the market. So if the market is there we certainly have the ability to run that. We don’t have anything that’s in the near term certainly for the next several years, we will use that 26 as a base, and we certainly have the opportunity to flex that up or down depending upon the market.
Mitesh Thakkar : And if you think about the cadence like, historically, we are not this heavily contracted. So we have more contracted for 2024 than we typically are. So that tells you that we have enough sales already booked and with the development of some of the newer markets and RFPs that Bobby and his team is working on in the domestic market as well we feel very confident about getting around that base and continue to optimize that.
Nathan Martin: Very helpful guys. And then maybe shifting to the export business. First maybe what the netbacks look like today kind of both based on API2 and Techco prices? And then Secondly congrats on entering some of those new markets. You guys just talked about both on the industrial and it sounds like crossover met side as well. And I know — in the past you’ve been successful tying some of that long-term business the API2 prices the floors and ceilings, but how should we think about some of this newer business? Is that still the way you’re looking at pricing that? Or could there be some other mechanisms you’d entertain or working on to possibly better capture the value of your product?
Bob Braithwaite : Yes. So in the quarter two of the deals under the 5.4 million tons that we did were significant export deals for 2024. When I say significant, there’s a significant amount of tons. And one we did at a fixed price and I can tell you that net to back over $70 to the mine. That is likely going to Europe. We looked at where API2 prices for the time we did that deal. And then the other deal we did was linked to both pet coke and API2 prices and had a fixed price component. So we continue to look at ways that we can price our product that makes sense into these markets, especially into the India market. And then the later deal I just mentioned it also had floor and ceilings tied to it, where the floor is going to provide us a minimum $20-plus cash margin and then we have some significant upside.
We’re also working on some additional term export deals and not only for thermal but also the crossover product. And as you know the crossover product typically gets linked to high-vol B prices, or in some cases if it’s going into Asia we’ll look at we’ll look at taking a discount off of TSI prices. So we’re looking at each individual opportunity based on where the ultimate destination is and the ultimate use of the coal, but we like fixed price deals better, but we certainly are looking at API2 and pet coke link deals as well. The market has been very volatile. I think the last I saw CFR India pet coke prices are in $125, $130 range. The PAMC equivalents about mid-60s back to the mine at that type of level. And then API2 prices are very volatile as well.
They were higher than $130 recently down in, call it the 120s today. And as I mentioned, we were able to get pricing netting over $70 during a time when API2 was in the upper $120s to $130 today you’re probably looking at somewhere again in the mid-60s based on $120, $125 API2 price.
Nathan Martin: Great. Appreciate all that, Bob. I’ll leave it there. Thank you guys for the time, and best of luck in the fourth quarter.
Bob Braithwaite: Thanks, Nathan.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Michael Dudas: Good morning, gentlemen.
Jimmy Brock: Good morning.
Bob Braithwaite: Good morning.
Michael Dudas: Bob, how are your customers in Europe, maybe — just maybe generally how they’re looking at their inventory levels and their early indications on demand and usage going into 2024 given global economic activities on one hand but still some shock from what’s happened with the gas over the past couple of years.
