ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 5 of 12

Dominic Macklon: Hey, John, it’s Dominic here. So yes, I think as Bill remarked, we do have above normal seasonal maintenance in the first quarter. That’s at Qatar Train 6 and 7, but also Eagle Ford Sugarloaf of our stabilizer facility down there. We’ve actually been preparing that for a bit of expansion. So that explains the Q1 sort of rate. But thereafter, our expectation is that each quarter will be around 2% to 3% year-on-year growth. So that’s really our base case.

John Royall: Okay, thanks, Dominic.

Phil Gresh: Michelle, next question.

Operator: Our next question comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays. Your line is now open.

Jeanine Wai: Hi, good morning. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking our questions.

Ryan Lance: Good afternoon.

Jeanine Wai: Good morning, Ryan. Our first one, maybe following up on Neil’s question on the cash return for the year, we realize that it’s still early in the year, but you’ve already declared the ROC for the first part of the year. How are you ultimately thinking about the split of the $11 billion of total cash return between cash and buyback, and is the buyback more of a function of your mid-cycle price assumptions?

Ryan Lance: Yes. I think the majority of our buyback is tied back to ratably buying our shares in our mid-cycle price assumptions. So we try to ratably buy some shares as we go through the year. And then we buy some variable shares depending on where we see the market. I would say, as we’re going into 2023, right now, we’re thinking roughly 50%, 50% between cash and shares in terms of the absolute return back to the shareholders. So the $11 billion would be split roughly $5.5 billion and $5.5 billion. That’s our thinking as we start the year, but we will watch the commodity price and where things develop as we go through the course of the year.

Jeanine Wai: Okay. Very helpful. Thank you. I’ll pencil that in €“ our second question, sticking with €˜23, but moving to CapEx here. We noticed that there is about $500 million to $600 million of incremental inflation included in the budget versus 2022 and there is some noise with the categorization of the Port Arthur spend. But it looks like Lower 48 will comprise about 60% of total CapEx for €˜23. And so our question is, how much of that $500 million to $600 million of incremental inflation is in the Permian and Lower 48 versus maybe other parts of your portfolio? And what’s your estimate on how inflation ended up by region in €˜22 and maybe any assumptions that you have in your budget for €˜23 inflation? Thank you.

Ryan Lance: Yes. Let me take a quick high-level shot. I think if you’re kind of looking at exit rates from 2022 going into 2023, it’s kind of low single digits. If you’re kind of looking at what’s the increase annually year-over-year. It’s more like mid-single digits. I think the difference we’re seeing this year maybe relative to last year is we see that mid single-digit inflation applying across the whole global portfolio and it’s slightly higher in the Permian to the question that you asked. So yes, we’re in €“ we’re seeing some categories of spend that are key to the company actually start to plateau and maybe even roll over a little bit, one that €“ one we’re watching pretty closely is OCTG, the tubulars, some of the raw materials that are going into making those are starting to come down and be slight a little bit.

Page 5 of 12