ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Alastair Syme: I wonder — sorry, back on LNG again. I just wonder if you could talk about the 3 opportunities you’ve taken on over the last 12, 18 months about how they compare on a cost of supply basis once you put together costs in fiscal, how it all comes together.

William Bullock: If you look…

Ryan Lance: Go ahead, Bill.

William Bullock: Yes, sure. So if you look at the projects, we picked up. So in Qatar, those are really nice projects that we’ve pursued for a long period of time. Those compete very well on our cost of supply. We’re quite happy with those. Port Arthur, we’ve talked about it pretty extensively. We’ve talked about how Port Arthur on an integrated basis that we’d expect low to mid-teens returns overall but with really steady cash flow and low-risk returns on that equity component. And then Saguaro is not an equity investment.

Alastair Syme: Although there’s still an inherent cost of supply associated with it in terms of how you’re thinking about the market position?

William Bullock: Yes, sure. So that comes down to what your cost to supply into your portfolio. We think that Saguaro is quite competitive because it’s on the West Coast, particularly when you compare that to Gulf Coast LNG because you’re on the other side of the Panama Canal. And so it’s a quite competitive supply location for deliveries, particularly into Asia and fits very nice in terms of if you think of an acquisition cost for LNG. It’s very competitive.

Ryan Lance: And I would add, Alastair, for the — yes, we look at the liquefaction fee and our reason for choosing Port Arthur and obviously, NPL is what we believe is a very, very competitive liquefaction fee and avoiding some of the costs through the Panama Canal, then places it at a premium to Asian buyers.

Alastair Syme: Okay. And my follow-up, probably to Dominic, I think you hinted at a question on 2024 CapEx that you’re sort of evaluating Lower 48 activity levels. And I was just sort of wondering what is sitting behind that. Is it something about tanking of the deflation you’re seeing? Or is it related to what you’re seeing on well productivity?

Dominic Macklon: Yes, Alastair. I mean it’s really looking at the performance of Lower 48 this year, I mean, it’s doing very well. We’ve got a very efficient machine running as we think about returns, we think about the growth that we are likely to see from the Lower 48 even at relatively flat levels. We will see growth, we anticipate even at maintaining flat activity levels. So we’re just looking overall and saying — looking at the macro and so on and just saying how much growth do we think is appropriate. So that’s just something that we’re considering. We haven’t made any decisions on that yet. But yes, it’s just a case of fine-tuning that as we think about 2024. So…

Operator: This question comes from the line of Josh Silverstein with UBS.

Joshua Silverstein: So in Mexico as well, you guys have the option and offtake in, I think, potential equity agreement at Costa Azul as well. What are the key differences between the 2 projects and why the first one with Mexico Pacific versus the cost do project?

William Bullock: Yes. I think the key difference is a timing issue right now, the Mexico Pacific is available right now. It’s getting ready to take FID. It’s in a good location with a very competitive tariff. And as we’re marketing today, that would be accretive and in the money based on the tariff rates that we’re looking at. So we do have options for ECA, Energias Costa Azul, on the West Coast through our interest in Port Arthur Phase 1. But that’s more longer dated. That project is not yet ready to consider taking FID, and there’s a bit of time to go on it. It’s a timing issue when they start up, or we think it’s an option for West Coast.

Joshua Silverstein: Got it. And then as you guys are putting together your portfolio, are you trying to optimize the exposure you have to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins? And maybe discuss some of like the key differences you see or risks you see between both sides.

William Bullock: Yes. So certainly, as we put the portfolio together, we’re looking at a diversified portfolio of offtake. We are actively developing pro-acement into Europe. We’re developing long-term deliberate opportunities into Asia, and we’re considering some sales FOB at the facilities that are in the money right now. We also are thinking about these in a time horizon basis with a mix of shorter- and longer-term dates as a portfolio. And we’ll be using our commercial organization to optimize across that value chain. So yes, we are looking at actively building out both European and Asian market and doing that through a variety of formats and time horizons.

Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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