Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So, that’s how we look at it, and that drives all the assumptions on debt pay-down and dividend payout and everything else on the capital allocation.

Peter Galbo: Got it. Thanks very much.

Operator: Our next question will come from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Steve Powers: Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just a couple of – you talked about some of these items already, but just a couple of elaboration on how to think about ‘24 from a couple of perspectives on the top line. Number one, as we think about the wraparound pricing, net of those pockets of deflationary correction. Is there a way to quantify what that kind of net wraparound pricing is on a full year basis, number one. Number two, as you catch up on sort of supply chain disruptions in the aggregate over the years. Is that the way to quantify kind of what you are assuming in terms of that benefit for ‘24? And then lastly, on the shift in consumer behavior, the hunkering down – you talked about that as transitory and temporary, and I think that’s clear.

The question I have is, are you assuming that it’s temporary and transitory within the year. So, i.e., there is improvement as we go forward, or are you assuming that the hunkering down that we are seeing of late is with you for the duration of ‘24 and the improvement really comes in ‘25 and beyond? Thanks.

Sean Connolly: Hey Steve, it’s Sean. I will start with the end and flip it back to Dave for the beginning part. So, what I was getting at is because our diagnostic without perfect information, looks at some of this multi-category multi-company kind of softness. Our conclusion is it likely is transitory. Our outlook and our guide assumes some of those headwinds really in the first half of the year, call it, earlier in the year and assumes that, that will revert to more normal type of behaviors as consumers adjust. In fact, who knows, there are some people that are speculating there is a summertime phenomenon as you get back to school and people are getting back in the groove, it changes. We are not that precise in terms of trying to peg it to a day or a month.

But just to give you some color directionally on how we are thinking about it, yes, we suspect it’s going to quickly go back to kind of what it normally is exactly when we don’t know, but we have baked in some conservatism there in the front part of the year. Dave, over to you.

Dave Marberger: Yes. Steve, I would just say I know there is just such a burning desire for everybody to get quarterly information, but we are just not going to do that. I think in my answer to Andrew’s question, I really tried to go through pretty methodically kind of color around the guidance and some of the cadence items with the disruptions and kind of wrapping on pricing and everything else. So, I feel like there is enough there to put together a pretty good estimate.

Steve Powers: Yes. First of all thank you both. On the second part, Dave, I am actually less focused on the cadence and more just thinking about it in the aggregate. On an annualized basis, just kind of what benefit, if any, you have baked in for supply chain disruption catch up, number one. And then what that kind of net wraparound pricing is when you do the – we know what pricing you took last year, and then I want to just trying to quantify what that is net of the deflationary givebacks on an annualized basis?

Dave Marberger: Yes. And I want to get because then you get into then you figure out volumes. And we just don’t – given the dynamics that Sean talked through, we just don’t want to get into getting very precise with exact volume and kind of the net impact on pricing. So, I think you know the drivers. You know the outcome that we are guiding to. So, we will keep it.