Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We are one of the least promoted categories or companies in this space. And the reason for that is simple. It’s not how you grow categories. You grow categories with great innovation and quality display. To David Palmer’s point on Frozen, just look at Frozen from what it did for years when that was the playbook, it didn’t do anything. And then when we change the playbook around innovation, and marketing support, we drove real high-quality category growth and dollar realization. So, we don’t like those kinds of promotions. But in the current environment with the consumer that is cutting back and making other choices we probably are more likely to see some players resort to harder deals to stimulate units. We have not seen a lot of that to-date.

So, that’s a good sign. But this isn’t our first rodeo, we wouldn’t be surprised to see that again. So, we monitor that carefully. And really, the only competitive detail, I will say is we will do what’s best for our business.

Jason English: Sure. Understood. And I am going to come back to Mr. Ross’ question. I know you don’t give quarterly guidance, but to his point, you are carrying in inventory rebuild in the first quarter. You have got wraparound pricing. Ardent Mills still has momentum. You have got a really easy gross margin comp. It looks like you are set up for another really solid first quarter. And in context of that and the full year guide, it would seem to suggest that you are expecting top and bottom line declines throughout the remainder of the year. Is there anything flawed with that thought process?

Sean Connolly: I think that, Jason, the simplest way I think you can think about the year and the cadence and flow that I intend it before is you got dollars and you got volumes. And this year, they ought to move in different directions, right, because we are wrapping the pricing. And so you are just going to see, yes, you are going to have stronger dollars early as pricing carryover is in there, and then that will soften. And then as you wrap that, volume trends should improve. And we are not going to guide by quarter for a variety of reasons, one is we don’t ever do that. The other is as I mentioned to Andrew, it’s not going to be linear in terms of month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter in terms of how this thing flows. I know everybody would like it to be that way, but it wasn’t a linear in the base period when a lot of these factors that we are going to wrap occurred.

And we have just got – we have got to get through the settling effect and continue to drive this business for the long-term and that’s what we will do.

Jason English: Understood. Thank you. I will pass it on.

Operator: Our next question will come from Peter Galbo with Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Peter Galbo: Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

Sean Connolly: Good morning.

Dave Marberger: Good morning Peter.

Peter Galbo: Dave, I was just trying to do a little bit of back of the envelope math, just on the dividend increase and the leverage target. Just can you help us out with free cash flow for this year? I know you have a CapEx guide, but just – it would seem like you would land a little bit below that $1.2 billion, but I just wanted to confirm that? Thanks.

Dave Marberger: Sure. So, if you look at fiscal ‘23, really ‘22 and ‘23. We made significant investments in working capital. So, our free cash flow did not convert to being able to pay down debt like we wanted to. But the good news is, as we end fiscal ‘23, we are in great shape with our inventories, we are at high service levels. We have the inventory that we need. So, as we look at fiscal ‘24, we guided to expected net leverage of 3.4x. We expect to pay down debt with discretionary cash flow in fiscal ‘24. And in ‘24 where working capital has been a headwind, we expect it to actually be a slight tailwind for fiscal ‘24. So, if you look at Conagra with modest working capital improvement, $500 million in CapEx, which we guided to, we should approximate a 90% free cash flow conversion in ‘24 on this business.