Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 8 of 10

Sean Connolly: Sure. Alexia, it’s Sean. Yes, that is a great example of what I mean by noise in the quarter and year-on-year. I mean if you want to look at our sustained market share trends in Frozen since 2016, ’17 when the innovation program really ramped up. It’s been extremely strong consistently. And now we’re wrapping a quarter where there is a bunch of noise in there. Let me just give you some examples of that. Omicron was last Q3, and we had businesses that performed especially single-serve meal exceedingly well during Omicron because people were staying home, they were having lunch at home, and so we had very big comps on some big businesses there. We also had competitors in Frozen in the year ago period that had major supply chain challenges and lost merchandising events where we picked it up also impacting our comps in the year ago period, and we did not repeat some of those this year.

And then you got the fish fire issue. So there is a fair amount — and I should mention value over volume on Birds Eye is one of the things that volumetrically is going to affect those numbers because 10 for 10 promotions, and our company has we’ve weaned ourselves off a promotion big time since 2015. In the last quarter, we were just over 20%. But until we hit this most recent inflation cycle, there still have been surgical 10 for 10 in our company’s portfolio that were not very profitable. They existed in two places. One was in low-tier vegetables and the other was in some of our Shepherd’s a good example. We have eliminated that practice. And this was the right window for us to do that, and we refer to that as value over volume. So as you’ve seen us do in the past, when we take that action, we will purge some low-profit volume out of our base, our margins will expand.

We’ll now have a much stronger base to build on with high quality, more premium innovation. And so that is one of the things we’re doing at low-tier vegetables, getting out of that 10 for 10 business. So hopefully, that gives you some color. We feel awesome about our frozen business and the innovation pipeline we’ve got going forward.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question today comes from Jason English for Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Jason English: First, Ardent Mills JV banner year this year on top of a great year last year. I know you’re not giving guidance for next year, but maybe you can help level set us as we look to normalized year, what do you think the right level of earnings is to model for that business?

Dave Marberger: Jason, it’s a difficult question to answer. Ardent Mills is a great business. It’s a newer business. It’s been growing, and it really has two key components of its business. It’s core milling and blending business where it creates great flours that it sells to customers and then it has more of a trading type business. And so that core business has continued to grow, the margins have expanded. They have great mix. They have great strategies to really drive the margins on that business and the sales. And they’ve also benefited from this environment and the volatility on their trading side of the business. And so the question comes down to what’s that trading piece? I think that the center line of performance for Ardent Mills will continue to go up. It’s just quarter-to-quarter, there can be more volatility just given the nature of the business.

Jason English: Yes. Okay. Well, in the first quarter ’21, you told me it was about $70 million was a reasonable number on an annualized basis. If the core business is growing, it sounds like it’s north of $70 million. But clearly, well south of the 180-ish or whatever you’re going to deliver this year somewhere in that range, I care, but any guidance in terms of where we’re closer to?

Dave Marberger: No, no, not at this point.

Page 8 of 10