Community Bank System, Inc. (NYSE:CBU) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Joseph Sutaris: Yeah. So, Matt, we do have approximately, call it, $7 billion of non — or excuse me, non-time deposits that are interest-bearing, right? So that’s comprised of interest checking and savings and money market. And the money market being the more sensitive of the group there, the money markets totaled about $2.4 billion on roughly a $13 billion base, savings accounts are about $2.3 billion and interest-bearing checking about $2.9 billion. So, if we have a reduction in the rates at the Federal Open Market Committee and debt funds comes down in a quarter, that’s the opportunity set for us. I would just emphasize that. The money market deposits are the more sensitive of those kind of three portfolios.

Dimitar Karaivanov: Matt, maybe just to add a little bit to that, we manage ALCO to roughly a neutral outcome in terms of rate exposure. So, let’s not forget about the asset size. We’ve been lagging on the asset side in the cycle because we’ve got a more fixed profile on the asset side. So that’s allowed us to — our deposit base has allowed us to do that. It’s also going to allow us on the other side now to have less of a pricing and repricing pressure on the assets in a down cycle. So that’s why we kind of look at our margin as probably a little bit sideways kind of in a plus or minus a few cuts type of scenario.

Matthew Breese: Okay. Understood. Thank you. And then I did want to touch on the securities portfolio. I mean, just judging from the swing in rates, first of all, is it safe to assume that a lot of that higher move is really valuation-driven versus purchase driven? And then secondly, could you just remind us what the cash flows are and the — what the outlook for that portfolio is in ’24?

Joseph Sutaris: So Matt, with respect to the cash flows, we have somewhat limited cash flows in ’24 and ’25, less than $100 million in each of those years. And as, if you recall, we did the repositioning back in the first quarter, we pulled forward most of the cash flows in that that were basically coming due in ’24 and ’25. We get to some more significant cash flows in ’26 and ’27 on a combined basis, about $1 billion in those years and then another $1 billion or so in ’28 and ’29. So we just effectively pulled forward those cash flows. We also have potentially small opportunities later in the year if we continue to kind of see this rate environment to pull forward some shorter-term securities, cash flows maybe at par without a loss and basically be able to migrate those into the loan portfolio, but we’re only potentially looking at a couple of $100 million, if we see that opportunity here in the coming quarters.

Matthew Breese: Sorry, trying to hit the mute button. Thank you. And then last one for me is just on — would love some general commentary on credit, what you’re seeing as the consumer goes into indirect auto loans as commercial real estate rolls? And then, how does that kind of filter into provisioning and the charge-off outlook for 2024? That’s all I had. Thank you.

Dimitar Karaivanov: Sure, Matt. I’ll take that. So if you step back and look at credit, and we’ve talked about it, obviously, about a recession and impact for a couple of years now. And we — if you look at our substandard and special mention, so if you kind of think about it as kind of the early warning buckets, there’s still roughly half of where they were pre-pandemic levels. So, we’ve certainly moved up a little bit, and you saw a few relationships get a little bit more challenged this quarter, which is normal, expected, still well below the historical averages. Our charge-offs in our commercial business last year were 1 basis point. Our charge-offs in the auto business, which I know you love, were about 20 basis points, 22 basis points, and we consistently believe that they should be higher.

And I think what’s happening behind a lot of that is just the economic environment is such when you have a low unemployment rate and a lot of government spending in the economy, it’s really providing a support to asset values across the board. You look at mortgage — our mortgage business, we’re going to have a little bit more delinquencies as things normalize. But when we take these things through the process, we get paid fully because the values of housing in our markets are actually back up. They’re actually higher than they were when we talked about the peak on kind of on a post-pandemic basis. So, asset values are very strong due to limited supply. People have jobs, even if they lose a job and fall delinquent a little bit, it’s too easy to find another job and get back in line.

The collateral values even on the commercial side are holding in pretty well. Those businesses are profitable. We have not seen anything that’s kind of consistent in terms of pressure in a specific geography or an industry. And again, when the government is spending so much money, that deficit is the private sector surplus. So that’s supporting just a lot of liquidity in the system and activity. And as we’ve talked before in our markets for the first time in a long while, we’re actually getting a little bit of an economic lift from the spending around some of the kind of the advanced technologies, the CHIPS Act, all of that stuff is helping our geographies.

Matthew Breese: Great. I appreciate all that. That’s all I had. Thank you.

Joseph Sutaris: Thank you, Matt.

Dimitar Karaivanov: You’re welcome.

Operator: The next question is a follow-up from Chris O’Connell with KBW. Please go ahead.