Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:CMA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Jim Herzog: Good morning, Steve, it’s Jim. As you know, we typically don’t like to focus on NIM just because of our business model, and it does tend to be a little bit more lumpy than other banks. We like to focus on net interest income. But to answer your question, we do expect NIM to be relatively stable in the range that it was in the fourth quarter. It may tick up by a few bps as we see securities run-off with those lower-yielding securities, but I think where we’re at right now in the fourth quarter is, kind of the area that we will likely hover in.

Steven Alexopoulos: Okay. That’s helpful. And Jim, what’s the deposit beta you’re assuming in this guidance by year-end 2023?

Jim Herzog: Yes, deposit beta is moving, as well as, of course, the overall rate environment. We were about a 26% beta in the fourth quarter. Rates did continue to move through the fourth quarter. So, I would say, we were approaching 30% beta by the time you got to the month of December. We do think in the first quarter, we will start moving and eventually reach about a 35% beta. And for the full quarter average in the first quarter, I do think it will be in that low to mid-30s, pushing up to 35%. And then as we move through the second quarter, I do have us moving into the upper 30s, that does include going after some higher-price deposits to make sure that we can fund our loan growth in an efficient way. And then once we get through the second quarter, as we hover in that upper 30s, if we had some broker deposits, it could push towards about 40, I would then expect it to, kind of hold there, and that’s about the time that rates peak also.

So, that’s kind of the trajectory we’re assuming and that I see for deposit betas.

Steven Alexopoulos: Okay. That’s very helpful. And then maybe for my final question. Just diving a bit deeper into the decline in non-interest bearing, you guys are citing customers investing in their business, but I’m curious how much is your customers chasing higher rate alternatives? And along those lines, up until this quarter, what we had heard from many of the regional banks was that treasuries were the key competitor, but what’s coming up this quarter is that the regional banks themselves are really stepping up competition for deposits. So, how much are your customers chasing and can you talk about the competitive environment right now, particularly from peer regionals? Thanks.

Jim Herzog: Yes. I mean €“ if I understood the question, you’re dipping a little bit out in terms of volume there, but our customers, when they do look at the higher-yielding options, they are looking at off-balance sheet money market funds. And we are increasingly becoming competitive to make sure we can compete from that standpoint. And we think that’s an efficient way to go. It’s certainly better than wholesale borrowings for us. In terms of where the leakage is occurring, we do some surge deposits still in the DDA. And as we talk to customers and look at what’s happening in the flows, it does seem like probably 40% of them €“ to the extent, 40% of the deposits that have gotten off the balance sheet are due to rate and then the remainder is, kind of due to funding CapEx, operations, and maybe a variety of other things.

So, certainly a mixture. We do think, to the extent customers are using deposits to fund their operations. We view that as a very positive sign. It is consistent with the loan story. When you look at the strong loan growth that we’ve seen and we forecasted, but we are increasingly becoming competitive with money market funds where we feel we need to.

Steven Alexopoulos: Okay. Great. Thanks for all the color.

Curtis Farmer : Thanks, Steve.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Curtis Farmer: Good morning, Jon.