Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:CMA) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:CMA) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript April 18, 2024

Comerica Incorporated isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).

Operator: Greetings, and welcome to the Comerica First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you.. Please go ahead.

Kelly Gage: Thanks Donna. Good morning and welcome to Comerica’s first quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Chief Banking Officer, Peter Sefzik. During this presentation, we will be referring to slides which will provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC’s website as well as the Investor Relations section of our website, comerica.com. This conference call contains forward-looking statements and in that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially from expectations.

Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor statement in today’s earnings presentation on Slide 2, which is incorporated into this call as well as the SEC filings for factors that can cause actual results to differ. Also, this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. And in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliation of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website, comerica.com. With that, I’ll turn the call to Curt. We’ll begin on Slide 3.

Curt Farmer: Thank you, Kelly. Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining our call. Today we reported first quarter earnings of $138 million or $0.98 per share. Although loan demand remained muted, we continue to see improvement in customer sentiment, translating into increased pipelines and signaling opportunities for growth. Our historically strong deposit franchise demonstrated resilience as deposits outperform expectations and normal seasonal patterns. These favorable trends enable continued normalization of our liquidity position, as we reduce wholesale funding by over $5 billion throughout the quarter. In fact, over the last four quarters, we repaid almost $12 billion in wholesale funding, while preserving significant available capacity.

Beyond our financial results, we were incredibly proud of recognition received for our efforts to prioritize our employees and communities. Greenwich award showcase our successful focus on small business and we see great potential for continued growth in this space. Earlier this month, we hosted an event at our new collaborative workspace in North Texas, and our second large office transformation is underway in Michigan. As a product of our modernization efforts, these business and innovation hubs leverage advanced technology designed to meet the evolving needs of our colleagues and customers through dedicated business centers. Immediate feedback has been overwhelmingly positive and we drove this workplace strategy will be key to attracting retaining talent, while offering unique benefits to small businesses and local communities.

First quarter financial highlights are on Slide 4. Average loans were impacted by rationalization efforts from 2023 including the exit of mortgage banker finance, which is now substantially complete. Deposits outperformed expectations and in fact would have been relatively flat excluding the deliberate reduction in brokered time deposits. Net interest income was impacted by lower loans, slightly higher deposit cost, and one less day in the quarter, but overall performed better than projected. Credit remains strong and net charge offs move even lower this quarter. Both non-interest income and non-interest expenses were impacted by notable items. We saw discrete benefit to taxes. Prudent capital management and lower loans drove an increase in our estimated CET1 to 11.47%, even higher above our 10% strategic target.

Stepping back strong liquidity, credit, and capital supports our solid foundation and positions us to prioritize responsible growth in the second half of the year. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Jim, he’s going to review our financial results in some more detail. Jim?

Jim Herzog: Well, thanks, Curt and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 5. Impacts from intentional balance sheet management efforts in 2023 carried over into the first quarter, and when coupled with soft demand, felt downward pressure on average loan balances. Lower utilization was a trend in both middle market where customers use deposits to repay debt and invest in their business and equity funds services where we observed continued softness in private equity activity. Conversely, commercial real estate utilization continued to trend higher as we funded multifamily and industrial construction projects, while managing commitments lower. As we look month-to-month throughout the quarter we saw balances decrease only modestly and a steadily increasing pipeline, which together support or expectation for growth.

Slide 6 highlights the stability of our deposit base. Average deposit balances declined $700 million, but almost $600 million was attributed to lowering brokered time deposits. Otherwise declines in technology and life sciences, equity funds services, and commercial real estate were largely offset by increases in general middle market, entertainment, and retail. In fact, retail balances are nearing pre-March 2023 levels with growth in both small business and consumer. Our mix of non-interest-bearing balances remained a competitive advantage averaging 40% for the quarter as both interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing deposits exceeded expectations. As anticipated, elevated rates continue to drive deposit pricing higher to 328 basis points and accumulative beta of 62%.

However, the pace of increase continued to flatten as it has for the past four quarters. Our deposit profile remains a competitive strength and we were encouraged by this quarter’s results. As shown on Slide 7, we normalized our liquidity position and in this quarter alone, we’re able to repay over $5 billion in wholesale funding, while retaining significant capacity. Over the last year, our liquidity strategy proved effective as we added liquidity to navigate volatility and then methodically normalized our position as the market stabilized. We were incredibly proud of our $1 billion debt issuance in late January, a record issuance for Comerica. Investor interest was high and the execution was effective, which to us signaled progress towards more normal market activity and interest in our value proposition.

At 80%, our loan to deposit ratio remains lower, 85% medium term target, positioning us to prioritize high return loan growth going forward. Period end balances in our securities portfolio on Slide 8 decline with continued pay downs and maturities, in addition to a $268 million negative mark-to-market adjustment from a higher forward curve. We expect continued decline in this portfolio over the coming quarters. Turning to Slide 9, net interest income decreased $36 million to $548 million, driven by lower loan balances and higher deposit pricing, partially offset by Fed deposits and lower wholesale funding. While lower non-interest-bearing balances also contributed to the quarter-over-quarter decrease, deposits overall outperformed expectations.

With favorable deposit trends, lower FHLB advances, a moderating deposit beta, and a $3 million non-cash is decreasing, net interest income exceeded guidance. As shown on Slide 10, successful execution of our interest rate strategy and the composition of our balance sheet positions as favorably for a gradual 100 basis points, or 50 basis points on average decline in interest rates. By strategically managing our swap and securities portfolio, while considering balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over time. As reminder, BSBY Cessation does not impact the ongoing cash flow associated with the swap notional is listed on the slide. While we took non-cash losses in the fourth and first quarters, we will create them back with a majority coming back into net interest income from 2005 and 2026.

Now, that we have fully re-designated remaining impacted swaps, we have included quarterly BSBY-related net interest income projections in the appendix for your modeling. Moving to Slide 11, we expect the attrition of our swap and securities portfolio to create positive earnings momentum. Scheduled swap maturities outpaced the remaining forward starting swaps in 2024. By the end of 2025, we expect lower overall notional balances and a 14 basis point increase in swap yields, creating a tailwind for net interest income. Within our securities portfolio, we expect approximately $4 billion in repayments and maturities by the end of 2025. Although some of this may be partially offset by reinvestments in the portfolio, we expect to redeploy that liquidity at substantially higher rates.

Altogether, we expect these portfolio trends to benefit our earnings trajectory. Credit quality remains strong as highlighted on Slide 12. Net charge offs of 10 basis points declined from the fourth quarter, which were already below our normal range. Elevated interest rates continue to pressure customer profitability and debt ratio service — and debt service ratios, which drove migration in general middle market and senior housing. Our senior housing exposure is limited by design and with a geographically-diverse new construction orientation, recourse, and potential for favorable macroeconomic and demographic tailwinds, we feel the risk is very manageable. Total portfolio normalization trends resulted in an increase in the allowance for credit losses to 1.43% of total loans.

Non-performing assets also increased, but still remain well below historical averages. Overall, our trends remained in line with expectations and while we continue to monitor the portfolio very closely, we believe ongoing migration will remain manageable. On Slide 13, first quarter non-interest income of $236 million included a $39 million non-cash loss related to the BSBY loan hedges not yet been designated. This compared to a $91 million BSBY impact in the fourth quarter and since we have now fully re-designated the remaining impacted swaps, we do not expect additional mark-to-market follows volatility related to BSBY Cessation. Fiduciary income was impacted by accrual adjustments and trust and accounting changes associated with our Ameriprise transition.

Initial feedback on Ameriprise has been positive and we continue to think this partnership can drive meaningful revenue growth over time. First quarter capital markets income was seasonally light as higher syndication fees were offset by declines in interest rate and energy derivative products. We had a $5 million miscellaneous item in the first quarter related to a vendor contract, but we would not expect that benefit to repeat. Expenses on Slide 14 included an estimated $16 million additional special FDIC assessment incremental to the $109 million charge taken in the fourth quarter. Excluding this assessment and deferred compensation, expenses performed in line with expectations for the quarter. Generally, we saw seasonal declines across most expense categories with lower severance and temporary labor, offset partially by stock compensation.

Further, we saw the benefit of lower pension expense which will be consistent throughout the year. Expense recalibration actions announced last quarter are underway and we expect the majority of identified colleagues separations and banking center closures to occur in the second quarter. We remain keenly focused on ongoing expense management to support investments and enhance overall earnings. Slide 15 highlights our conservative capital position as our estimated CET1 grew to 11.47%. Although we’re below $80 billion in assets, our estimated CET1 adjusting for the AOCI opt out was already above the required regulatory minimums and buffers. Despite higher unrealized AOCI losses due to the rate movement, tangible common equity increased to 6.36%.

We expect unrealized losses to burn down over time as securities repay and swaps mature, but the rate curve continued to create near-term volatility. As I mentioned on our last earnings call, we favor a conservative approach to capital management and plan to monitor ongoing AOCI movement and regulations as they evolve. Our outlook for 2024 is on Slide 16. We project full your average loans to decline 3%, largely due to optimization efforts in 2023. Despite soft first quarter demand and the higher rate curve, we still see constructive signs in customer sentiment and pipeline supporting our projected 4% to 5% point-to-point growth. With average loans expected to be flat to down 1% in the second quarter, we still anticipate broad based growth in the second half of the year.

Full year average deposits are expected to be down 2% to 3% from 2023 or down 1% to 2% point-to-point. This assumes our new lower level of brokered time deposits remains flat from March 31st and represents an improved average customer deposit outlook for the year. Excluding brokered time deposits, we expect year end 2024 deposits to exceed year end 2023. Our year-over-year net interest income outlook, down 11%, remains unchanged despite movement in the rate curve. Strong deposit performance as well as moderating deposit betas, largely offset the reduction in the number of rate cuts. As a point of clarity, we use the April 10th forward curve to reflect the most recently published CPI number and market consensus, reflecting two rate cuts in the second half of the year.

As I mentioned at a conference last month, movement in the rate curve since 12/31, does push our projected net interest income trough into the second quarter. But as you can see in our guide, we do not expect the quarter-over-quarter decline to be significant. Credit quality remains strong and we expect continued migration to be manageable. We forecast full year net charge-offs to move into the lower half of our normal 20 to 40 basis point range. We expect non-interest income to grow 1% to 2% on a reported basis, which will be down 1% year-to-year when adjusting for BSBY and Ameriprise as detailed on Slide 39. With a higher forward curve, risk management income is expected to remain strong and we project growth and most customer related fee income categories in the second quarter and throughout the year.

Full year non-interest expenses are expected to decline 3% on a reported basis, but growth 3% after adjusting for special FDIC assessments, expense recalibration, and Ameriprise. As always, this assumes deferred compensation of $0 for the remaining quarters. Projected second quarter expenses should come down from the first quarter due in part to seasonal compensation and we expect to see the benefit of savings related to our recalibration efforts throughout the year. Continued strategic investment remains a priority and the bar for regulatory compliance and risk management framework continues to rise. So, we are working to offset and self-fund these increasing pressures. We saw a discrete tax benefit in the first quarter. By excluding discrete items, we projected 24% tax rate for the full year.

Even with projected loan trends, we expect to maintain capital well in excess of our 10% target. We will continue to monitor AOCI volatility and the evolving regulatory environment as we continue to take a conservative approach to share repurchases. Overall, favorable deposit trends put us on a great path to start the year and we feel very good about the earnings trajectory of our business. Now, I’ll turn the call back to Curt.

Curt Farmer: Thank you, Jim. We understand the heightened industry focus on the timing of rate cuts and what that means for quarterly net interest income and we think we have a compelling earnings trajectory. However, as we think about the true value in our business, we think it’s important to take a step back and reinforce our differentiated value proposition as shown on Slide 17. As a leading bank for business with strong wealth management and retail capabilities, our tenured colleagues deliver value added expertise to our enviable customer base. Our highly regarded approach to credit, coupled with our commitment to diversification, mitigates risk of loss and has historically outperformed peers. Customer feedback reinforces our belief that we are the right size to deliver tailored products by adding value to their business providing a high level of service.

Product investment and strategic partnerships, such as Ameriprise that we entered into last year, are designed to further enhance our core set of solutions. The resilient or operational deposit base was highlighted this quarter as we outperform normal seasonal patterns and maintain a favorable deposit mix. We remain committed to managing the company for the long-term, which means taking targeted expense actions like those announced last quarter, while still prioritizing investments in our future. With a strong capital base, proven approach to credit, and commitment to risk management, we see positive momentum for reasonable growth and enhance profitability. Appreciate your time this morning. Now, we’d be happy to take some questions.

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Q&A Session

Operator: Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Today’s first question is coming from Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Curt Farmer: Good morning, Ken.

Ken Usdin: –about improving profitability and the implied improvement in NII throughout the year, just wondering — want to make sure that after this dip in the second quarter then it seems like we could see quite a sharp increase in the second half NII. Just can you help us understand like what that cadence looks like? So, if it’s down a little bit, is it up and even more up to exit or — because the implied sequential feels like it could be like 5, 7ish, as you know, kind of getting towards the end of the year. And I just want to make sure we understand like how that looks as these deposit pricing and last kind of things move through? Thanks.

Jim Herzog: All right. Good morning, Ken. It’s Jim. Happy to answer that question. Yes, number one, we do see an increasing rate of improvement quarter-to-quarter as we go through the year from second to third and third to fourth. And, frankly, I expect that trend to continue wven beyond the fourth quarter of this year. We do have a lot of momentum behind us. And if I look at some of the big drivers that are driving that momentum, then probably the top of the list would be the maturing swaps and securities. And we did try to outline what that benefit could be on Slide 11, showing those various maturities and they do pick up momentum as we move through the year and into next year. So, I’d probably list that as one of the biggest drivers.

But I would also say loan volume is going to almost be an equally large driver. If you look at the guide that we gave, it implies a pretty significant hockey stick up in the last couple of quarters of the year. And so we’ll certainly pick up some income there. Probably on a lesser basis, obviously, we’ll get some more days in the second half of the year. And then the liability sensitivity, which will not be as large, but will be a factor will start to kick in in the second half of the year too. So, it will be a nice smooth trajectory upward and we do feel really good about that momentum.

Ken Usdin: Great. Okay. And as a follow-up. Just on the deposit side, you mentioned that you think deposits will end higher at the end of the year. I think the mix is still important, how do you expect that DDA to total deposit mix to go? I mean, granted, it’s all good in an absolute range, if it’s still all moving up, but just can you help us understand the mix? Thanks.

Jim Herzog: Yes, happy to do that. And just to really clarify that we’ll be excluding brokered deposits — time brokered deposits, since obviously, we don’t consider those customer-related. Those are down quite a bit even since the end of 2023. So, that guidance was excluding those. But putting that aside, we do expect the mix to stay somewhat consistent right now. We’ll continue to monitor it. And this, a little bit higher for longer environment. But it’s been holding up very good to-date. And as we look out into the future, we do expect it to continue to hold up. To the extent it dips below 40%, which we’re not projecting at this time, it’s more likely to be due to success with interest-bearing deposits as opposed to any challenge with non-interest-bearing. So, we think our mix will continue to be pure leading and a real competitive advantage for us.

Ken Usdin: Great, Thank you.

Curt Farmer: Thanks Ken.

Operator: Thank you. The next question is coming from John Pancari of Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Good morning, John.

Curt Farmer: Good morning John.

John Pancari: Good morning. Also on the NII expectation, I know you indicated that the curve is essentially pushed the NII trough into the second quarter, but you also mentioned some of the dynamics of an improving trajectory. Can you maybe give us some color if we do not get forward curve and we do not get cuts at all in 2024, what does that mean for your NII, not only the timing of the trough, but the broader outlook? And then can you just remind us what Fed cut assumption do you have currently in your expectation?

Jim Herzog: Yes, I mean, right now on the expectations, we follow the forward curve that came out right after the CPI reports. So, we’re sticking pretty closely to that, which reflects just under two cuts in the second half of the year. If we don’t get those cuts, I did mention the liability sensitivity. And that’s a very slight sensitivity position. We’re very close to interest neutral. So, I would not want to overplay that. I think if we don’t get the cuts, because we are so close to interest neutral, it’s not so much the sensitivity that causes the challenge. But I think what causes the challenge for the whole industry is with flat rates, you still have the potential for depositors to ask for higher pay rates. So, I do think probably all banks will see slight increases in pay rates over the course of the year and in the next year.

If rates weren’t going to change, I do expect that to be a slight impact. But those would be the two factors. We lose a tiny bit of liability sensitivity, which is more of a minor factor for this year. But you also run the risk of continued rising pay rates as we move through the year also.

John Pancari: Okay, great. That helps. Thank you. And then separately on the loan growth side, I know you revised your average loan growth guide down — to down 3%. And you cited to muted demand, but improving pipelines in the expectation of a back half pickup and growth. Can you maybe talk about the confidence in that pickup? Where do you see loan generation strengthening, what anecdotal data supports that that expectation because clearly, we’re seeing industry pressure at this point?