Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (NASDAQ:CCEP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Brett Cooper: I wanted to ask a question more holistically on what’s pressured the business as it relates to margins. So I think 2022 gross margins are down roughly 300 basis points from pro forma 2019 levels. Seems like we have ongoing pressure into 2023. And I appreciate the rationale for not fully covering inflation. But on a €17 billion revenue business, it’s growing. Recovery of that margin is significant to profit and cash flow. So I was hoping you could scope the drivers of that decline and then your thoughts on the ability to recover those drivers over time? And then just finally, a clarification as to whether recovery of those margins are embedded in your long-term targets?

Nik Jhangiani: Yes. Great question, Brett. And I think as we’ve highlighted a couple of times, we want to do this in the right way looking at both what we need to do in the short term, but also what is the midterm objective. So the first piece of data that I would give you that there’s nothing that’s structurally different in our market or environment that would not allow us to get to those margin percentages, right? For us, right now, it’s been about very much growing absolute cash margins. And I think we’ve demonstrated, hopefully, very strong results there. So we definitely plan to get back. We will do that in a balanced way. Is that built into our long-term algorithm? Well, part of it is built in when you just think about what we want to continue driving on an efficiency basis.

And part of it is back to the point that Damian made earlier that we have been disciplined since we formed Coca-Cola Europe Partners and now Europacific around smart RGM, looking at opportunities of optimizing promo, looking at pack diversification, the away-from-home channels coming back nicely. We’re now back at about flat levels from a volume angle in that channel, a couple of markets still have an opportunity to get back to ’19 levels. So we are focusing on that, but I think we’ve got to look at it in stages. And right now, we want to continue ensuring that we are relevant, play across the spectrum in terms of the affordability and the premiumization and continue to grow more at-home occasions and at the same time, look at what we can do to get more growth in the away-from-home channel and improved profitability in those channels as well.

Operator: We will take our next question. Our last question comes from the line of Matthew Ford from Exane BNP Paribas.

Matthew Ford: Nik, my question is just on the away-from-home volume performance in Q4. So on the release, I think you mentioned that away-from-home volumes in Q4 were 4.5% below 2019 levels. And this seems like a little bit of a slowdown from, I think, 2% above in Q3 and something similar in Q2. So I was just wondering what were the drivers of that kind of sequential slowdown? And are you seeing those trends kind of continue into the first 1.5 months of Q1?

Damian Gammell: Well, to kind of give a short answer. No, we don’t see them — that, as you call, we don’t see a slowdown actually. I mean, I think on some of the comps, obviously, in the quarter, things will move around. But what we’ve seen consistently over the full year is a strong reopening of away-from-home across all of our markets. And I think from an outlet level, we’re above 90% outlets that have reopened post-COVID. So that’s good. We’re now seeing traffic continue to improve, tourism has come back. So people are flying again. So a lot of the drivers, particularly in markets like Spain, with tourism, et cetera, have come back very strong. So we see that as a positive going into ’23. So we see that growing ahead of where we were. And so nothing that we’ve seen away-from-home to cause any concern at the moment.

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