CNH Industrial N.V. (NYSE:CNHI) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Nicole DeBlase: Thanks. Good morning guys. And Scott thanks for all the help and good luck in the future. I guess maybe starting with picking up where Jamie just left off on production and ag. Is the expectation that the worst year-on-year production decline occurs in the second quarter? And then you guys kind of get back to more modest declines in 3Q, just maybe putting a finer point on the quarterly cadence in the Ag segment.

Scott Wine: Yes, that’s true, and it’s also true because of the compares year-over-year, that the compares get a lot easier for us in the second half. So that – but also we’re pretty confident. And I mean, the production cuts are one half of it. The other part is what we do, driving retail, and I’m really confident in how the team is working closely with our dealer partners to make sure that we accelerate and capture every one of those where we can. I will – since I mentioned it, I will talk about the fact that we’re not going to chase and I – we’re going to be disciplined. And when some of our competitors will really discount things to get sales, and we’re not going to do that. And I think you see the price realization that we’re talking to, we’re being – we’re going to drive for market share gains. We’re going to drive for retail efficacy, but we are going to be very disciplined on managing price through that.

Nicole DeBlase: Got it. Thanks, Scott. That’s helpful. And then just maybe one on construction. The margin performance was really impressive there this quarter. So you guys have still maintained the guidance for 5% to 6% for the full year implies a step down from first quarter results. I guess what’s driving that?

Scott Wine: Well, first of all, you cannot recognize the significant improvement in margins as Stefano and his team have drawn. But the reason we didn’t raise it most – a good bit of the beat in the first quarter was related to ongoing strike impact that we had in the first quarter of last year that doesn’t repeat throughout the year.

Nicole DeBlase: Got it. Thanks, Scott. I’ll pass it on.

Operator: Your next question comes from David Raso with Evercore. Please go ahead.

David Raso: Hi. Thank you. I’m just trying to square up in ag. The sales guide is down 13%, but your end market outlook is down 15%. Obviously, the parts business itself doesn’t move around as much as unit forecast for the industry, the complete goods. In the fourth quarter of last year, you did underproduce retail. So I appreciate those two offsetting factors. But when you’re thinking about the rest of the year, I don’t think pricing is that high. I’m just trying to square up how much are we really underproducing if the sales guide isn’t down as much as your industry guide? This is my first question. Just trying to make sure that we’re level setting where you expect inventory to end the year. Just the math isn’t working for me as easily as I would have liked.

Oddone Incisa: Well, that need some mix in there. There is a market share consideration, and we expect to gain markets to outperform the market this year. If you look at how we behave compared to the market last year in some parts of the world, and I will look at South America first that we have space to recover into the production or sales to market deal. I mean it’s a question of stocking and destocking the dealers we had stock our dealers in the first quarter of last year. We – our dealers are kept – have kept their stocks basically flat this year, it was slightly down this quarter, sorry. And we expect to have inventories at the end of stock – dealer inventories at the end of the year lower from where they were at the end of last year. But most of the left work has been done there.

Scott Wine: And don’t forget, our penetration of technology sales is improving as well throughout the year.

David Raso: Yes. I mean it feels like there’s at least enough market share there to at least have to put that into the equation because when you look at the mix, it’s actually high ticket items that are down more than the low ticket items, right? Brazil, combines, really combines around the world as well as even within North America. It’s the larger tractors that are down. That’s why. But obviously, there’s a market share component there. Lastly, on the margins for the rest of the year in ag, and if you square that up with what you’re trying to insinuate on Slide 9 of how much savings are left for the year? And I know that covers both segments. But the framework still seems – you seemed so pretty comfortable with rough numbers, decrementals of 40, but then you add the cost savings and we kind of get back to around that 20.

That doesn’t seem to have changed. So I guess the question is on price cost, did anything changed in your thoughts in the guide on pricing versus before and price cost in general, the math suggests not and I’m just trying to square up the market share, but – are we not changing the price look? So I’m just trying to square all this up. Thank you.

Oddone Incisa: No, it hasn’t. It hasn’t. I mean, we still have the same consideration in pricing that we had before, so modest, talking agriculture, right, modest – very modest price increase, but some price increase and continued reduction in our cost of production, and then positive impact of our SG&A actions.

David Raso: All right. That’s helpful. Thank you so much.

Operator: Your next question comes from Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Mike Shlisky: Yes. Hi. Good morning. And Scott, I’ll add my best wishes to you as well. I wanted to talk quickly on pricing in ag. You mentioned positive pricing in the quarter. And I know that’s just – that’s wholesale, not necessarily retail where there was some discounting happening around the world from your competitors. But I would just say that you’re just kind of broadly speaking, when you price to farmers, you’re not looking to kind of play that game right now. And is that implying that maybe you’re trying to keep things open for some growth in 2025?