CMS Energy Corporation (NYSE:CMS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Durgesh Chopra: That’s very helpful color, Rejji. I appreciate it. And then maybe one just quick clarification on the financing point, I’m not trying to jump that down here but you mentioned you’re going to update us on the Q4 call. But for 2024 next year still no equity that’s still accurate correct?

Rejji Hayes: That’s exactly right.

Durgesh Chopra: Thank you.

Rejji Hayes: Thank you.

Operator: And our next question today is from the line of David Arcaro of Morgan Stanley. David, please go ahead.

Rejji Hayes: Hi, David.

David Arcaro: Good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question. You alluded to this on the last question, but maybe just directly on as you look into 2024 what’s your comfort level you’ve pulled a lot of cost levers for this year to the extent there are any incremental challenges into 2024. But do you still feel like you’re setting up with the same quantum of flexibility around cost structure and the overall expense structure as you look toward hitting your guidance next year?

Rejji Hayes: Yeah David. Appreciate the question. This is Rejji. So as you think about the glide path to deliver on the guidance we initiated today, we’re guiding $3.06 to $3.12 in 2023 and then $3.27 to $3.33 in 2024. And so that implies somewhere around $0.20 of pickup year-over-year to get to midpoint to midpoint or thereabouts. And so as I think about it, obviously, the weather we had this year we’re looking at roughly $0.30 of weather and that’s just the mild weather experience over the first three quarters of the year and we anticipate basically being flat in the fourth quarter. So you have to imagine that because we plan for normal weather, we shouldn’t anticipate that $0.30 of weather impacting us next year. Now the reality is there have been some one-timers as I’ve mentioned in my prior remarks on the tender financing side.

And so we’d have to assume that those don’t recur as well. And so when you net the two of those out you get about $0.10 of pickup. And then if you think about the pending rate case we have. We had a very constructive gas rate case settlement in the third quarter of this year that was approved by the commission. We’ve got a pending electric rate case and then we’ll file another gas rate case in December this year. And with the anticipation of constructive outcomes on those proceedings that offers about per-preliminary estimates maybe somewhere between $0.10 to $0.15 net of investment related costs of pickup. And then again a lot of the cost savings I enumerated earlier, we expect a decent portion of those to be sustained and so we’ll get additional pickup there.

And so you can get to a glide path of that $0.20 per share again for that year-over-year growth relatively easily when you look at those pieces. Now there are always puts and takes. And again there are some things that will roll off going into 2024. And I think what’s highly debatable is will we see the same quantum of service restoration expense going into next year because clearly we’ve had a record level of storm activity as I noted in our prepared remarks. And so as we think about the glide path it’s going to be a combination of rate relief, net of investment-related costs with our pending proceedings. We’ll see the weather roll off. We’ll see some of the one-timers roll off. And then we expect some of the savings from a lot of the cost reduction initiatives to provide a tailwind on a net basis next year as well.

So that’s what gives us confidence that we can deliver on the 2024 guide. Is that helpful?

David Arcaro: Yeah, very helpful. I appreciate all the color. All good points. And let’s see what also just going to check on could you just give the latest update in terms of what you’re seeing with the voluntary green pricing program potential upside from that program and just expectations for how customer additions could trend from here?

Garrick Rochow: Yeah, it continues to be very positive. And so remember we’re in what I’d call a tranche of 1,000 megawatts that is being contracted out. There’s significant demand from our customers for those products. We’re well over 400 megawatts of contracted lower that continues to grow. And then that’s driving to more build from a renewable perspective. And so we’ve announced even within the quarter the intent to build a solar facility in the current — coal facility that will help meet some of that — a portion of that need. So again very robust continued strong interest from our commercial and industrial customers.

David Arcaro: Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Operator: And our next question today is from the line of Nicholas Campanella of Barclays. Nicholas, please go ahead.

Nicholas Campanella: Hey, thanks for taking my question everyone. Just one for me. A lot of them have been answered. But I guess just looking at the resiliency plan you kind of start to show the SADI scores improving ’25, ’26, but I was just trying to dig in more on how you’re thinking about operational risk reduction for ’24. Just given lessons learned from last year’s storm cycle and I assume you’re probably actively deploying some of this technology now. So just how should we kind of think about storm risk ’24 versus this year? Thanks.

Garrick Rochow: Great question. I’m glad you’re digging into it. That’s a fun plan to look at. Right now — and that’s why I shared in some of my prepared remarks like we’re not waiting. And the commission has been supportive of additional tree removal or vegetation management. That’s more than doubled our spend over the last three years. So that’s active work that’s underway. There’s close to 300 crews that are on our system contracted crews that are out doing that work today and have been over the course of the year. And we — in those areas where we do the work we see greater than a 60% improvement well underway. In addition to that fusing, 15,000 fuses over the last two years and a plan to do more next year as well. That takes — when there’s an interruption on the system like fuse box in your home.

And so rather than the whole home going out you might lose the bathroom or the kitchen. Same type of thing on the electric. We’re fusing that. So when there’s an interruption, less customers are impacted. We’re seeing SADI performance improvement already from the deployment of those fuses. We’ve never done this level of fusing, never across our history. We continue to add automation. I just saw a great one the other day being able to — one of the things on our high-voltage distribution system we’ve got what’s called a Victor insulator. Now Victor insulators are prone to failure. That’s a known problem. But once you put them on the grid back in the ’70s we didn’t have the best kind of control on where those went. And so to be able to identify them you got to be able to see the small little D on top of the Victor insulator.