CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CME) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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It does bring out, I’d say, consistent revenue – again, these are contracts that are up for renewal, so I think we do see certainly some repeatability with the subscription and the nature of those agreements. But because of those two different key components, there is some spikes to them occasionally, and we did see that happen in this particular quarter. I’d say as it relates back to commercialization more broadly, definitely continuing to work with Google on our initiatives there. We’ve been very clear from the onset that our data business is a priority as we think about trying to deliver our data in new ways, and new solutions with them, and that work has continued throughout the quarter and so–you know, I think in one particular [indiscernible], we’ve talked about the transaction cost analysis and TTA work.

That is in production today and is being used by our business and with our clients to help them make better business decisions. The BrokerTec [indiscernible] change that we’re having and the seven-year coming up in just a couple weeks, we specifically developed this result with being able to leverage this tool. We’re working to be able to share that directly with clients, but for now I think that is a good example of the innovation that we’re driving with our partners at Google [indiscernible] Sunil.

Sunil Cutinho: The only thing I’ll add is we have plan to add more [indiscernible] more data that’s available as risk management becomes a priority, as Terry has pointed out, so we’ll be working with our clients on stress scenarios, historical scenarios, so they can use that [indiscernible].

Terrence Duffy: Thanks Julie, thanks Sunil. Thanks Alex.

Alex Kramm: Thank you.

Terrence Duffy: Next question? Craig, we have you listed as the next speaker. Are you there? If any out there can hear us, we’re having a little trouble hearing the other side come in. We’re not hearing anything, so bear with us for one second.

Operator: Sir, Craig’s line is open. Craig, you may go ahead.

Terrence Duffy: Okay, thank you.

Craig Siegenthaler : Hey Terry, can you hear me?

Terrence Duffy: I can now, Craig. Thank you. I apologize for the delay.

Craig Siegenthaler: No worries. I was trying before, but nobody could hear me. Listen, guys, I know you plan to launch credit futures in June. There is an attractive capital efficiency component with the margin offset, especially against the rate product. How do you size up the TAM for this new segment, and how quickly do you expect volumes to ramp, just given your conversations with key participants?

Terrence Duffy: Yes, good question Craig, and I don’t know if we can answer it fully because we haven’t got the contract out yet, but that’s always the multi-million dollar question, as they say. Let me turn it over to Tim to talk a little bit about the market and the potential opportunity, what it might mean not only for the credit market but for markets that are correlated, associated with it, that CME already has today. Tim?

Tim McCourt: Great, thanks Terry. Craig, really appreciate the question. Ourselves and our clients are excited about the launch of credit futures on June 17, which will be indexed futures on the Bloomberg corporate bond indices. I think CME is uniquely positioned given our strength, both in the interest rate and equity complex. Credit tends to be at a nice intersection of those other asset classes but also offers a unique, distinct market where when you look at the recent growth in credit markets, that has an addressable market of about 90 billion average daily volume in terms of notional across the fixed income ETS, the CDX, the cash bonds, and even the underlying market is becoming more and more electronic. We think that the velocity of this market will continue, the need to hedge this market will continue as people become increasingly aware of managing their credit risk.

To your point, Craig, we expect to offer margin efficiencies. Introducing capital efficiencies to enable our clients to manage their risk is something that is tried and true here at CME, and early indications, which are always subject to change, we think there will be a 70% margin offset between the U.S. treasury futures and the investment grade credit future, and 50% offsets against our [indiscernible] equity benchmarks for high yield. [Indiscernible] margin efficiencies in prior products and prior offerings is something that we believe and what we’re hearing from customers was a key hurdle for some of the other offerings to become successful, but to Terry’s point, while we can’t necessarily predict the future, we are optimistic. We’re hearing great things from clients, and given our ability to offer offsets against our asset classes in the base FNO fund and our unique leadership positions in the price formation of the associated asset classes, we’d certainly like to see what we can do with it come June, when this contract goes live.

Terrence Duffy: Thanks Tim. Thanks, Craig, for the question. Appreciate it.

Operator: Thank you so very much. Our next question is from Kyle Voigt, KBW. Sir, your line is open.

Kyle Voigt: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe a question for Lynne. I noticed that $750 million of debt moved into the short term bucket this quarter due to the expiration coming in early 2025. You are below your historical target leverage level of one times, and I think you could even issue a billion dollars of additional debt from current levels and still be below that threshold. I guess, would you consider increasing gross debt levels with upcoming refinancing to include that cash as part of the annual variable next year, or should we think about the debt simply being refinanced at current levels and–sorry to squeeze the second part of this question in, but could you also remind us how you think about maximum leverage if the right M&A opportunity were to present itself?

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