There are several ways for retail investors to use the information in quarterly 13F filings from hedge funds for their own gain. For one, we have found that the most popular small cap stocks among hedge funds earn an average excess return of 18 percentage points per year (read more about imitating small cap picks) and we think more strategies are possible as well. Another technique is to look at top picks of different managers- not to imitate them, but to use their ideas similarly to a stock screen as a list of free ideas. We can also combine hedge fund ownership with other criteria such as low price-to-earnings multiples. Read on for our brief thoughts on five stocks that Cliff Asness’s AQR Capital Management owned at the beginning of January with both trailing and forward P/Es of 10 or lower or see the full list of Asness’s stock picks.
The fund’s top pick was Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL); even with many hedge funds selling the stock, causing Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) to lose its place as the most popular stock among hedge funds during Q4 (see which stock was the new #1), AQR actually added a small number of shares and had about 520,000 shares at the end of 2012. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) experienced flat earnings in its most recent quarter compared to the same period in the previous year (with one fewer week in the quarter) and currently trades at 10 times trailing earnings as the market expects a decline in net income.
Asness and his team cut their stake in Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) by 10% but the oil major was still one of their top stock picks. Chevron carries trailing and forward P/Es of 9 and 10, respectively, as large energy companies- like large banks- are generally trading at low earnings multiples. As with JPMorgan Chase, it’s of course possible that some of Chevron’s peers are better buys, even those which are slightly more expensive on an earnings basis. The stock pays a dividend yield of 3%, lower than BP’s but competitive with many similar companies.
See two more of Asness’s picks with low earnings multiples:
The 13F disclosed that the fund had increased its holdings of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF), a $12 billion market cap fertilizer company, by 70% to a total of about 570,000 shares. In the fourth quarter of 2012 CF’s net income increased versus a year earlier despite a 14% decline in revenue; that is impressive, though we would be a bit concerned with how sustainable the company’s earnings would be. Analyst consensus implies a forward P/E of 8. Over the longer term CF may benefit from increased agriculture demand.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) rounds out our list of cheap stocks that AQR owned at the end of 2012. The aerospace and defense company would be expected to see a decline in business as a result of cuts to U.S. military spending, though it’s possible that it would be able to cut costs as well. Northrop Grumman trades at 9 times earnings, whether we consider trailing results or projections for 2014, and this is in line with the multiples of its industry peers. There is a significant dividend yield here as well, at 3.2%, though we’d note that Lockheed Martin’s yield is 5%.
Overall these cheap stocks all look worthy of at least some further research. Northrop Grumman and Apple are trading at low multiples due to concerns about their developing business conditions- and in the case of Apple in particular we aren’t quite ready to write off the days of earnings growth. JPMorgan Chase and Chevron are certainly good value prospects, though we aren’t sure they are better than their peers (we’d note that Exxon Mobil and Wells Fargo are two more of AQR’s largest holdings, but are just outside the valuation criteria we set). CF is also looking into, though with that company we would want to be thinking longer-term and of course reviewing its peers as well.
Disclosure: I own no shares of any stocks mentioned in this article.
