Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Lucas Pipes : Lourenco and Celso, thank you for the color on Q1 pricing. And I have to admit, I didn’t catch all the details, but could you walk us through kind of the pluses and minuses on the pricing front in Q1 versus Q4. And, ideally, looking out to Q2, if you could shed some color on the price increase there, that would also be really helpful. Thank you very much for your color.

Lourenco Goncalves : We are expecting Q1 average sales price to be down approximately $30 to $40 from Q4. Remember, we have lags from sub-700 index prices in November and December. And that will go against the fixed price contracts that are higher. So 2023, average sales price will be impacted by this type of thing. Also, we have to remember that the renegotiation of contracts is for 2023. So we’re talk about things that will happen through the year. So we are — all in all, because of our cost cut initiatives that Celso explained, we are expecting cost cutting impact to be higher than the lower Q1 average sales price. And that’s what is going to increase margin. So it’s not just a matter of average sales price, but also the cost cut initiatives that will enlarge our margins. So Q1 will be better, we expect, Q1 EBITDA to be better than Q4 EBITDA. And then Q2 EBITDA to be higher than Q1 EBITDA and so on and so forth. So that’s the story. I hope I answered.

Lucas Pipes : Yes. No, that was very helpful color. So for Q2 pricing, we would essentially see the full benefit of the higher fixed prices alongside the higher spot prices coming through with the lag? And then…

Lourenco Goncalves : That’s correct. That’s correct.

Lucas Pipes : Thank you, Lourenco. And on the cost side, we would also see continued improvement in Q2. And that is my second question. What would be the key drivers there? I estimate it’s about $40 or so of additional cost savings in Q2 versus Q1. Is that the right ballpark? And I assume it’s working through higher cost inventories and such. But if you could add on continued cost savings in Q2, I would appreciate your perspective.

Lourenco Goncalves : Yes. Celso, do you want to take this one?

Celso Goncalves : Yes, sure. Lucas, as you know, a lot of the cost increases in ’22 were driven by these repair and maintenance initiatives and special projects like the reline of the Cleveland furnace, et cetera. But as we work through those, and we see some relief from inflationary pressures as well, and as we increased our volume output, Q4 costs decreased to the level that we guided, the $80 a ton, in line with our Q3 guidance. And going forward, we expect another $50 per ton reduction in Q1. And then beyond that, you can probably plug in another $60 per ton from Q1 to Q2, and then, call it, another $40 per ton or so from Q2 to Q3. Does that kind of get you where you need to be, Lucas?

Lucas Pipes : That is super helpful, Celso. I’d say that’s better than I expected. So I really appreciate the color and detail for the cadence of the year, and I wish you and the team continued best of luck.

Lourenco Goncalves : Thank you, Lucas. And I insist with that. This cost-cutting initiatives are also a function of the volume because we’re talking cost per ton, so higher volume, and it’s included in the numbers that Celso given to you. And these volumes are all being priced at higher prices, both in fixed contracts with automotive, and, hopefully, we’ll continue the trend that we initiated in November and so far so good for the other business where prices are going up, and that’s a good thing for us. So it’s pretty meaningful enlargement of margin that we’re expecting throughout the year.

Operator: Our next question comes from Lawson Winder, Bank of America Securities.