Jason Gabelman: Got it. My follow-up is kind of maybe a bit more philosophical just about how you think about forecasting the business. You know 2022, you’re final EBITDA came in below forecast. Your initial ‘23 was below what you provided at the RNG day and had it be revised lower. And a lot of the value, I guess, or the potential value for the stock is in the future growth potential. And so we’re obviously very reliant on the earnings forecast that you provide. And so as you think about laying out those forecasts moving forward. How do you think about it relative to how those high results have come in relative to prior forecasts? Do you think you need to be a bit more conservative? Do you think there’s a couple of things that have driven the kind of forecast misses the past few years. Just any, I guess, thoughts about how you think about forecasting the business moving forward would be great. Thanks.
Andrew Littlefair: No, it’s a good question. And obviously, we’re trying to create a new market. So it’s a little bit different, right? This isn’t mature. There’s a lot of moving pieces to it but that notwithstanding it’s our job try to do as best job we can to forecast. I mean this year had you not had that first quarter you would have been in on target. That’s what I was trying to get at with this you would have been right in on guidance all right and we didn’t revise our guidance last quarter we just had enough information and we weren’t sure about where that low carbon feels. So your credit prices was so you were you know and I think what we’re trying to do here Jason is exactly that is be concerned and be responsible and we reverse you know we revised down now albeit you know $3 million, $4 million all right.
What we’re trying to lay out though for you is to show the potential size, right, of the market. And so it’s kind of a balancing act between, you know, is the future of this business us discussing 47 versus 50 in EBITDA or two years hence when you have the PTC where it’s $250 million.
Jason Gabelman: Right, right. Understood.
Andrew Littlefair: I think you’re in that period here, right? Where there has been — hasn’t been wasn’t until recently, a lot of great clarity on the — we were all going to have an E-RIN. Well, that changed. We’re not having an E-RIN, right? We were going to have a June adoption of a rule at the low carbon in California. Whoops, here we are in November waiting around for it. And so there’s been some things that have interceded here and haven’t given as much clarity as I wish that we would have had and we’d all of it had. You know, when I look at our budget planning, and we’re within 97% of budget on volume, that’s not so bad, 98%. Now, I don’t control low carbon fuel standard pricing. And we’ll get better at it. But we’re trying our best to try to get this right.
And it doesn’t help us to miss targets. So today, we’ve revised it down a little bit. I don’t think you could fall off the pancake at this point. I think we’re about down to where we’re about as bad as it’s going to get, and I think it’s upside from here. So I appreciate the question. And I don’t think we’re being overly rosy. But we’re dealing with some kind of moving pieces. Will Cummins get those things all produced and start selling them in June? I don’t know. They just said they would. But I hope they will. But when I look at the big picture and I look at what’s happening with electric vehicles, I mean, don’t ask how many electric vehicle trucks that are supposed to be the future of heavy-duty transportation. None of those are sold. So I like the way we’re positioned.
And so I think the best thing for us to do is be prudent with our capital, is continue to develop on the RNG side and control our own destiny, and continue to work with our partners on third-party supply and work our customer base on the adoption. Because when you compare a heavy duty truck operating in RNG versus the other alternatives that are out there, leagues ahead and more efficient and more cost effective and so that’s what gives me optimism going forward.
Jason Gabelman: Great I appreciate the detailed response.
Operator: Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Andrew, you may proceed.
Andrew Littlefair: Oh, thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for listening in today and we look forward to updating you on our next quarter year end. Thank you.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you very much for participating and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great evening.
