And we think they’ll peak inside of ’24, so that’s captured in that average forecast that we’ve given. We haven’t made material changes to our underwriting. However, there is mix evolution that happens. Transactors, we have a number of transactors that have kind of come on to our portfolio and are in the mix of our branded portfolio as well. And so anyway, those are the drivers that give us confidence and inform the trajectory that we — that we’re talking about here.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question will come from Ryan Kenny with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Ryan Kenny: Hi. Thanks for taking my question. So I have a question on quantitative tightening. Wondering if you have any early thoughts on how Citi is positioned if the Fed ends Q2 early. Is that a material catalyst for you? And would that help you hit your revenue targets even sooner?
Mark Mason: Yeah. Again, I mean, when I think about our interest rate exposure and for US dollar, in particular, we showed it in our last Q, we’ll show it in this Q for a 100 basis point move in a parallel shift, we’re looking at probably a negative $1.6 billion or so. But important to point out that the US dollar component of that is only a couple of hundred million dollars. Similarly, if rates moved in the other way, positive of 100, there’d be a small movement as it relates to US dollar exposure. So our US dollar exposure is relatively neutral again, assuming a static balance sheet, a parallel shift in the curve. And so we’re kind of neutral relative to rates moving in either direction and therefore the impact there.
Ryan Kenny: And there’s a lot of optimism and debate around capital markets rebound. Are you seeing that? And can you help us update us on investment banking pipeline across M&A, ECM, DCM?
Jane Fraser: Yes. We certainly had a much more constructive market environment at the end of ’23 interest rate spreads and volatility at most of the year, equity prices are high. And I think we view this as a helpful foundation for activity to accelerate in ’24, assuming the tailwinds persist. And speaking of our own pipeline, the breadth, the depth, the quality of it is very sound. It’s higher than it was pre-COVID. So when markets are constructive, we expect to move these opportunities forward, and we’re hearing a lot more confidence from the CEOs, CFOs around this. And when we’re looking at our own side, as you know, we’ve been investing in some higher growth areas. So we get a good balance between our traditionally strong sectors as well as high-growth areas.
And we’ve been seeing some very good momentum in health care and technology as well as areas of traditional strength, which is energy and industrial. And I think we feel very confident in the recovery in DCM, the beginnings of one in 11. And so cautiously optimistic here. I’m not — so I wouldn’t say that it’s going to accelerate enormously and with incredible speed, but I think we’re feeling much better about the foundation. Mark, anything you’d add?
Mark Mason: I completely agree.
Jane Fraser: Yeah.
Operator: Our next question comes from Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.
Scott Siefers: Afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. Have you all assumed any revenue attrition just related to the reduction in force? And I guess, just broadly, how might that be embedded in the ’24 revenue guidance. And I guess just at a top level, maybe just a thought or two on.
Jane Fraser: Scott, Sorry, I didn’t hear what it was. I think the phone line cut out. The revenue in attrition?
Scott Siefers: I’m sorry. Yeah. Just curious if you have assumed any revenue attrition related to the reduction enforce over the coming year or two?
Jane Fraser: Okay. No, we haven’t. I think a lot of the moves that we’ve made from the organization simplification. So the 5,000-or-so roles we talked about, they’re mainly managerial roles. And they’ve mainly impacted the functions and the geographies, not nearly so much the revenue from revenue generators. And the other piece is with the client organization, we’re actually putting much more time into the hands of our people to drive revenue forward. So I think what we’re looking at here is it getting a bit of areas of bureaucracy and where we’ve been too complicated, where we can drive efficiency whilst preserving our frontline and encouraging them to be as revenue-productive and delivering the full force of the firm to the client. So I’d like to see the opposite actually.
Scott Siefers: Okay. Perfect. Thank you. And then, Mark, could you discuss for a second, maybe just broadly the flow of expenses through the year? I know that they should begin to decline toward the end. But what happened between now and then? Do they hold kind of flattish with a core rate, or would there be any normal course of business growth?
Mark Mason: I think what I’d say is that you should expect that in the first quarter, we’d likely see an uptick in our total expenses relative to the fourth, in part because, as Jane has mentioned, we anticipate that there’ll be more to the org simplification and, therefore, dollars associated with that in Q1. And then from there, I would expect that you’d see a downward trend through the fourth quarter.
Scott Siefers: Perfect. All right. Thank you.
Mark Mason: Yeah.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question will come from Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Vivek Juneja: Hi, Jane. Hi, Mark.
