Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jim Mitchell: Hey, good afternoon. Mark, maybe just a follow-up on the expense, slide 22, where you talk about $2 billion to $2.5 billion of expense saves. I guess, I’m struggling with the numbers there. I think if you look at exit, and wind down markets you’re probably close to $2 billion in numbers there and maybe the stranded costs, you can’t get all that out. You’re doing about, severance is $700 million to $1 billion in ’24, so it doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of actual cost saves in that number, just maybe I’m wrong, if you could just kind of walk me through the numbers embedded in there and if there is, you’ve kind of alluded to more to come beyond the intermediate term.

Mark Mason: Yeah, I think the thing I’d point out to you is a couple of things. One, obviously we’re forecasting revenue growth over this period of time. And so it’s going to be volume-related expenses associated with that. The second thing I’d point out, as I just mentioned to the prior question, is that we’re continuing to invest in risk and controls and in the transformation over this period of time. And so what you see is, there is an increase in expenses associated with at least those two things and that’s offset by the savings that we’re starting to generate, particularly from the org simplification that Jane has talked about, as well as from the stranded cost reduction that will continue to play out, as well as from some of the rightsizing of businesses that we’ve referenced in some of the prepared remarks.

And so important to think about their headwinds and tailwinds that kind of net down to this $2 billion to $2.5 billion. And then the final point that I’d make is, if I look at this medium-term number of $51 billion to $53 billion that still has Mexico in it. And in one of the other pages, we point to expenses around Mexico, but because of where we are, will be in the IPO process, that’s still going to be part of this expense base. And so, you can’t lose sight of that.

Jim Mitchell: Well, that’s an important clarification that the $2 billion to $2.5 billion includes some revenue-related volume growth. So that’s helpful. And then just maybe the other, on the slides talking about revenue targets, one of the big numbers not talked about was markets. How are you thinking volatility has come in, macro picture is getting better, maybe that mutes volatility. How do you think about that business in ’24 as it relates to your guidance?

Mark Mason: As you know, it’s a tough business to forecast, certainly for full year and in some instances for a quarter. And so we basically kind of back that out, but we’ve assumed markets kind of flat to modestly down, but we’ve backed it out, and it’s roughly flat. Not of the 81 — not of the 80 to 81, but you see the guidance of NIR ex-markets and NII ex-market. So in the 80 to 81, we’ve assumed it roughly flat.

Jim Mitchell: Okay, great, thank you.

Operator: Our next question will come from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Ebrahim Poonawala: Hey, good afternoon. I think, Mark, just wanted to — good morning — afternoon, Jane. Just wanted to follow-up on something I think Mark said at the end of his very first response around, it’s very hard in my seat to figure out whether you’re going to grow revenues or shrink revenues given the macro, should we take it based on what you said today, as we look into ’26, getting to that 11% RoTCE, if for whatever reason revenue fall short, you feel good about the expense flex to mitigate that headwind.

Jane Fraser: Hi. It’s Jane. Obviously, I want to just jump in on one bit, which is, we are committed and we’re very confident around the 4% to 5% revenue growth rate, and so there isn’t any backing away from that number, and that’s in various macro environments, et cetera. And as we look across the different businesses and the projections we have, we’re confident around that. Obviously, if there is a very adverse macro environment, et cetera, we’ve got other levers we can take, but Mark, let me pass it to you.

Mark Mason: And I by no means was trying to suggest that we weren’t confident in the forecast for the top-line. If you think about the strategy and the strength of those five core businesses, we’ve got a lot of conviction around that. With that said, as you pointed out, Jane, under a circumstance where that doesn’t play out, obviously, volume-related incentive comp expenses and the like that would naturally come down, we’d ensure that they came down with the revenue decline or shortfall, and then we’d recalibrate other spend — other investments spend not related to risk and control and transformation, but other investments across the platform we’d recalibrate accordingly.

Ebrahim Poonawala: Perfect. Just what I needed. And one quick question. As we think about rightsizing the Markets business, there’s been headlines around the muni and the distressed business that you’ve gotten out, is there a risk where you the Markets business becomes too small? Any lack the scale to be sort of efficient and relevant in certain just across the breadth of, be it fixed-income or equities, just if you can talk about that? Thank you.

Jane Fraser: The short answer is no. We have — if you think about our Markets business, we have four businesses each of which are around $4 billion or so in size. You have our Global FX network where we’re typically number one in any year just given the strength and particularly the corporate client base we set off. Rates, typically top three, together these are two of the largest macro pools within fixed. In terms of the spread products, we’ve been putting our financing and securitization business as part of our simplification fully within Markets, so that we’ve created a unified scaled spreads product business. And then finally, equities, where we’re focused on improving our prime offering building balances. We still have a way to go obviously in that.