Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Mark Mason: The only thing I would add is that, Gerard, you could see just depending on how this plays out. You could see kind of NCL rates tick up above normal levels and then come back down to normal levels in the timeline that Jane described. Again, just depending on how the macro factors continue to play out. But again, we €“ as we sit here and talk about these NPL rates, it’s important to point out as well that we are very well reserved across all of these portfolios. And so to some extent, if you put macro assumptions aside and volumes aside, the NPLs kind of get funded by the reserves that have been established. But the trend line is exactly as Jane described, just recognizing that you could see a tick up above normal levels and then it come back down.

Jane Fraser: Also this is such an unusual market in the sense that you have got such strong labor market driven by frankly, supply shortage over as much as demand. And we have also got the consumers with still very high savings that they are dipping into, and we are seeing a bit more of the movements happening at the bottom end of all of this. But this is not going to be like a normal recession. It’s why you are ticking here as that others will be about the manageability and the mildness of that likely if we do have one.

Unidentified Analyst: And what kind of unemployment rates, are you guys assuming going into that kind of trajectory? Is it €“ we get the 5% unemployment by first quarter €˜24?

Mark Mason: I think a couple of things. So one, our base case scenario, if you think about what we just talked about includes kind of a mild recession in it, just and as we forecasted it, the downside would be something a bit more severe than that. I would say we are reserved for approximately a 5% unemployment rate, just kind of overall when you look at €“ when you average across the different scenarios that we have.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question will come from Ken Usdin with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Ken Usdin: Hi. Thanks. Just two quick questions here. First one, just on card, the card NIM has been kind of flattish. And I know that obviously, it has to do with just how you internally allocate the funding towards it. But can you just kind of talk us through what’s happening either with rewards or either incremental rates on some of the new relationships? And should we see the card NIM expand from here?

Mark Mason: Yes. I am not going to get into Ken, kind of guidance on NIM. What I will say is that we have seen good traction in the early part of the year as it relates to acquisitions on the card side. We have made very good traction. And Jane, you may want to comment on kind of the relationships that we have with some of the partners and with American. And we have also launched a number of new products that I think is helping to fuel the growth that we have seen on the heels of those investments and some of the increase that we have seen in spend rates as well as some of the average interest-earning balance and loan growth that we have seen. But I really don’t want to get into the NIM guidance at the card level or the aggregate at this point.

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