Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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The other thing that is apparent to us as we forecast this out is the continued growth from a volume point of view. And that volume growth, you have seen the momentum already pick up on the card side with significant growth in interest-earning balances. And we would expect that to continue, particularly as we see NCLs normalize and as we see payment rates start to temper. And so I think those things will be two major contributors. Mix is obviously a factor. As you point out, we will be growing over some of the drag or reduction from legacy, but is that active management of the client engagement that we have across both portfolios, that I think will be important factors to us delivering the growth that I talked about.

Jim Mitchell: That’s all fair. But I guess maybe I didn’t phrase my question right, but I felt it ex-markets, I think your forecast for 2013 would be less than the 4Q run rate ex-markets and yet you just…

Mark Mason: Sorry, finish your question. I am sorry.

Jim Mitchell: Well, just you shared a bunch of reasons why you have sort of a differentiated franchise. So, I am just trying to get a sense of what’s driving the decline from 4Q levels.

Mark Mason: I think the thing you have got to pick up is really the legacy franchise and the NII. A large part of the legacy franchise revenues are NII revenues when you look at the mix of the products and the clients that we cover there. And so I think that’s the important element here that we haven’t quantified to a dollar amount, but that is explaining why it seems like muted growth relative to what you would have seen in the fourth quarter. Obviously, there is other factors, but that’s important.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question will come from Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Unidentified Analyst: I am Mark Hernandez .

Mark Mason: Good afternoon.

Jane Fraser: Hi. Go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst: Mark, can you share with us on your comments regarding and this is true for your peers as well. The normalization of credit losses going forward since the industry has experienced incredibly low levels of credit losses. So, when you look at branded cards or retail sales, or retail services, how do you see that progressing through €˜23? One of your peers pointed out that they think that by the end of €˜23 they may be at that normalization rate that they look to for their numbers. But I am just trying to see what the trajectory is for what you guys are thinking?

Jane Fraser: Yes. Let me jump in and then I will hand it on to Mark. But I think we are expecting under the current trajectory to see the loss rates to reach the pre-COVID levels more at the year-end, early €˜24 level. If you think of branded cards, if I was to quantify sort of 20% of the way there now, CRS, we are about 40% of the way there now. Obviously, we have the benefit in CRS of sharing of the loss sharing with our partners that helps us. But I hope that gives you a sense around it. Probably the most important driver that we have been worried about it was very certain with what was happening with payment rates. And I think we have got much more clarity as they started that normalization path. So, that’s driving a fair amount of more certainty around what the direction is happening there. Frankly, the big question more what’s happening with spending than it is with the normalization right now. It’s a bigger uncertainty. But Mark, any other observations?

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