Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: And our next question comes from Matt O’Connor from Deutsche Bank.

Matt O’Connor: Hi. [Technical Difficulty] credit card in the back half of the year. And just wondering, you’ve got the normalized loss rates on Slide 22. Are you still thinking you’ll hit those, I think, exiting this year or early next year. And then, I think at one point you said they might go a little bit above that before they kind of come back to a normal level? And is that still the case?

Mark Mason: Yes. Thanks for the question. The answer is, yes. We still expect for both portfolios to hit those normal levels sometime at the end of the year, the normal level, as you pointed out, on the page for both branded as well as for retail services. We would expect, again, subject to how and when this mild recession kind of plays out, we would expect that they would tick higher than that before getting back inside of that range. But again, all of this is tied into how we’ve calculated our reserves, the delinquencies that we’re seeing, the mix of the portfolio, which again skews towards your higher FICO scores and the customer behaviors that we’re seeing, which play through not only that cost of credit line, but also plays through the growth that we referenced earlier in the top line. But the short answer is yes, that’s still our thinking.

Jane Fraser: And as Mark said, I think we feel good about our positioning as a prime, but also a strong credit proposition that we have. We’re seeing stronger demand for the credit-led products such as value cards, bulk on installment loans, as well as the service-led engagement for the more prime customers. And so, that’s also going to be a valuable factor driving growth and profitability as well.

Matt O’Connor: And then the follow-up, and this is not really Citi-specific, but for the card industry, a lot of the banks that are in card. Everyone is talking about kind of getting to normalized levels, just call it in the near term here next couple of quarters. And I guess, just thoughts on getting this normalized level of losses when unemployment is all-time low, wages are growing. Obviously, there’s inflationary pressures, but it’s just a little surprising, again, not to say specific, but it’s a little surprising that we’re getting to this normalized state when things seem like they’re pretty good.

Jane Fraser: Yes, I think well, also the normalized state back in 2019 is also pretty good. So you’re not hearing any alarm bells ringing from Mark or myself at all here on the US consumer. I think we see the US consumer as resilient. We’ve talked about them being cautious but they’re not recessionary. And we are seeing more pressure on the lower FICOs. We don’t have a large number of that in our portfolio, but that is where we’re seeing more of the normalization happening on the payment rates, for example, on other behaviors in there. So it’s quite localized, but I don’t think we should be overly concerned here about the health of the US consumer. And as Mark said, we’re in a very unusual environment, higher inflation, these rate levels and a strong labor market. And under those conditions, it’s the debt service ratio, as he said, that is, we think, is a more useful leading indicator that we keep a close eye on.

Mark Mason: Just remember, it’s a return to normal.

Jane Fraser: Yes.

Operator: And our next question comes from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

Gerard Cassidy: Hi, Jane. Hi, Mark.

Jane Fraser: Hi.

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