Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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I mean the reality is some of the revenue that we ended up posting this year, in fiscal ’23, are orders that we took and customers wanted the product back in fiscal ’22. We just couldn’t get it out. We couldn’t get it delivered because of the supply constraints. So the better way to think about this is what’s been the compound annual growth rate from when we started building that backlog and the supply constraints set in, which was the end of our fiscal ’21 through — and I’ll just pick the midpoint of our guide for fiscal ’24. If you do the compound annual growth rate on revenue through that time, it’s right around 5%, which is, as you know, in line with what we see as our opportunity longer term. So I think it’s a little bit tough to track what’s happening.

We just rely on year-on-years because the year-on-years have just been so skewed by the supply chain. If you step back from it and look at endpoint to endpoint that growth rate feels pretty good.

Amit Daryanani: No, that three-year CAGR is really helpful. Thank you.

Marilyn Mora: Great. Thanks, Amit. Next question.

Operator: Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley. You may go ahead.

Meta Marshall: Great. Thanks. Fantastic kind of data points around the traction with the hyperscalers. When it comes to kind of the $0.5 billion of orders you noted or even kind of the 800-gig trials. Is that with Scheduled Fabric? Is that with Silicon One? Just kind of trying to get a sense of what piece of the portfolio that is. And then just on the Security portfolio, clearly, you’re rolling out a new — a lot of new products, changing some of the sales approaches. Just when do you think we could see an inflection in that business? Thanks.

Chuck Robbins: Yes, Meta, thank you. So on the Ethernet underneath the AI GPU networks, it is Silicon One for sure. And I think for the next 12 months or so, I think we’ll be doing trials. I think we’ll have some opportunities, but there’ll still be a lot of InfiniBand. And that’s why we joined as a founding member of this Ultra Ethernet coalition so that we can up guide the standards and really deliver Scheduled Fabric, to your point, in a very effective way. So we think into FY ’25 and beyond, this thing will begin to shift to more of an Ethernet-based infrastructure. On the Security front, yes, we’ve had some early traction. I mentioned Goldman in the multi-cloud defense, which is a great sign of confidence in that solution.

If you look at our XDR platform, which, candidly, we just went GA with it right at the end of the quarter. And we already took a seven-figure order from a retailer in Europe. So that was positive. We took one of our largest security orders ever. We took an eight-figure security order from a Fortune 10 company in Q4. So there’s some early green shoots, and the teams are executing. The early feedback and early commentary from analysts and customers, et cetera, is positive, but we’ve got to actually deliver on it. And hopefully, in the second half of this year, we’ll see some real positive impact and then ’25 for sure.

Meta Marshall: Great. Thank you.

Marilyn Mora: Next question, please.

Operator: Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs. You may go ahead, sir.

Michael Ng: Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for the question. I just have two. First, it was encouraging to hear about the share gains on campus switching, SP routing and wireless as well as the expectation to continue to grow share. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the sales execution, the product road map there that gives you the most confidence in that continued share growth. And then second, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about your expectations as it relates to the trajectory of orders going forward. It sounds like if the backlog kind of gets back to normal levels in the first quarter, you should just grow along with revenue growth as we think about order growth beyond the first quarter, but just would love your thoughts there. Thank you.

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