Ciena Corporation (NYSE:CIEN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Jim Moylan: And overall, we will just again point out that demand for bandwidth globally continues to grow at outsized rates, 30%-plus. That has been €“ that growth rate has been really unaffected by whatever happens in the macroeconomic environment. That’s what we have seen for a long, long time. So, our outlook for the year assumes based on our past experience that any effects in our business with respect to customers’ CapEx or their ability to take their products from us are immaterial.

Amit Daryanani: That’s really helpful, and just a follow-up. How should we think about the cash flow generation into fiscal €˜23? And sort of, I guess to some degree, do you think inventory levels at peak, and this has to trend lower? Just any parameters on how free cash flow would start up in €˜23 will be really helpful to understanding that. Maybe expanding that, you see a capital allocation evolving for that to hopefully improve next year.

Jim Moylan: Yes. We are not going to see an enormous amount of free cash flow in €˜23 partly because we are going to spend a couple of hundred million or so on acquisition of Tibit. Generally speaking, too, we don’t expect that our inventory level is going to decline sharply this year. We could be wrong. I hope we are wrong. That would mean we ship more than we expect to ship now. But we expect our inventory position to come down, just not as far as it will in subsequent years. So, without giving a number today, I can just say that we are not going to be in the free cash flow generation mode that we have been in, in past years. We will have free cash flow of course, but it’s just not going to be as big as it’s been.

Amit Daryanani: Prefect. Thank you.

Gregg Lampf: Thank you. Katherine, ready for next question.

Operator: Our next question comes from Jim Suva with Citi. Your line is open.

Jim Suva: Given the backlog and your strong guidance for fiscal €˜23, can you comment a little bit about seasonality? I would assume that seasonality, I mean with COVID, it’s been a long time since we have normal seasonality. But could you comment about seasonality for fiscal €˜23? I would assume the backlog and supply makes seasonality kind of less relevant?

Gary Smith: Yes. Jim, I would €“ yes, I mean that really is the answer to that. I think it is less relevant. It’s interesting that we are seeing even stronger order flows in the Q1 that we are in right now. And typically, it would be lower. So, I think because of all the whipsaw of demand over COVID and the supply chain, I think those dynamics have kind of been thrown up in the air. And I think it’s going to take a while before they kind of bed back down again, frankly, because people want to make sure that they are in the queue and that they are able to get the security of supply and even if it is further out. So, it’s sort of uncharted territory for us in terms of the seasonality piece. The whole €“ I mean as I think about FY €˜23, just to sort of simplify it, it’s really all about what we can ship and supply. It really is. That’s going to be the cause of any ebbs and flows in the various quarters. It’s all about supply.

Jim Moylan: If you take the midpoint in the year, 22%, which is a little higher than what we have experienced for the long period of time. So, that just sort of proves out what Gary is saying. It’s all about how fast we can get components and deliver to customers, not so much the typical seasonal order pattern.