Ciena Corporation (NYSE:CIEN) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Gary Smith: I would not describe it as that. It’s a very, very strong Q1 for us. If you think about it, that kind of number is very strong. And I would caution folks that I understand people are fixated on orders in the backlog. The backlog cannot and should not maintain the levels that it is. So the order flows, whilst they’re good will not match shipments. We expect that during the year. So we expect very simply to end the quarter — end the year with less backlog than we went into it. And that is a good result for our customers and a good result for us. So I think we actually had a very strong Q1 orders. But I would caution particularly on just taking order metrics on a quarterly basis right now, we’re going to see some ebbs and flows during the year.

There’s no doubt about that. I mean, last year, we had 25% order growth last year. And if you look at the end of, I think it was Q3 in FY ’22, if you look at the trailing 12 months, it was up 60%. That is not sustainable. And whilst it’s wonderful, and it’s a great demonstration of all the wins that we’ve had, we’ve got to take them to revenue in this next phase of the business. And we still believe we’re going to have a very good ’24 and go in with a strong backlog. But it’s not going to be a linear line from an order point of view. That’s for sure. Second part of your question, Samik.

Samik Chatterjee: Yes. I understand we are happing on small numbers here. But maybe switching gears here to WaveLogic 6, you just mentioned that the WaveLogic 5 orders had really started to sort of come in more in the recent quarters. So how do you think about the likelihood that with the release of WaveLogic 6, so quick in succession that customers start to push out sort of their move to WaveLogic 5 and wait out the WaveLogic 6 is in the market, just given that it’s so sort of following on the heels of the WaveLogic 5 orders starting to pick up?

Scott McFeely: Samik. So first of all, just a point of clarification. The WaveLogic 5 orders were a big part of that order growth that we saw in the last 18 months. So it’s really a microcosm of the whole order dynamic that Gary said. So what we are doing now is we are in an accelerated way, converting those to revenue, to bringing them to shipments to our customers. So just I thought I heard you say something a little bit different, so just a point of clarification there. I think about WaveLogic 6, the timing, as we said, is first half of ’24, obviously, we’ll start to see design wins against that earlier than that, I suspect. But I will point out that it takes several cycles for next generation of technology to actually overtake the previous generation of technologies in terms of shipments or revenues.

For example, this past quarter was the first quarter where WaveLogic 5 was the biggest number of units that we shipped across all of our generation of technology, and it’s been available for a couple of years.

Operator: Our next question comes from Paul Silverstein from Cowen.

Paul Silverstein: Gary, I apologize returning to the issue, but we seem to be a slow bunch. So I’ll add to it. Relative to investor concerns about CapEx from both carriers and web-scale, what do you — from your comments, it doesn’t sound like you’re seeing any weakness. It sounds like the strength is pretty broad-based if I understood your comments correctly. What’s driving that? What’s the disconnect between these? And I’m mindful that CapEx trends in the individual companies’ revenue are far from one of the same. What — can you give us any incremental insight on what’s driving your strength relative to the outlook for this year, those cutbacks that a lot of your customers have been talking about.

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