However, even though Ciena had turned in a terrific quarterly report earlier this year, the shares haven’t taken off. Mixed news coming out from different quarters regarding telecom spending has weighed on the stock and kept Ciena grounded. As such, its upcoming second-quarter results on June 6 will be vital in determining whether Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ:CIEN) can replicate its solid performance from last year in 2013.
Let’s see what’s expected of Ciena and whether its upcoming results and outlook can provide the much needed impetus to the stock price.
On revenue
Analysts, according to Yahoo! Finance, expect Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ:CIEN) to post revenue of $483 million in the quarter, slightly up from last year’s revenue and a shade ahead of the company’s own expectations of $465 million-$495 million at the mid-point. The revenue estimate seems to have moved up since Ciena’s last quarterly results, and the company would have to stretch its top line performance toward the higher end of its guidance to meet estimates.
But then, management had sounded pretty optimistic over the previous conference call, and believed that Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ:CIEN)’s competitive strengths and customers should help it stay ahead of the industry. Well, that optimism would be put to test when Ciena reports its upcoming results. The company’s products were witnessing good traction and it was gaining contracts at Tier 1 customers across the globe in the first quarter.
Most importantly, Ciena’s order backlog in the first quarter was quite strong and had exceeded revenue in that quarter. Design wins across the globe painted a very pretty picture of Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ:CIEN), and one could expect the company to beat estimates in the second quarter.
On earnings
This is the most difficult part to predict, as Ciena’s bottom line performance has been erratic in the past four quarters. The company had posted earnings of $0.12 a share in the first quarter, stunning the Street which was expecting a loss of $0.14. However, before that, Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ:CIEN) had sprung negative earnings surprises of 100% and 17% in the previous two quarters, preceded by a terrific beat in the second quarter last year.
Thus, it’s quite clear that predicting the company’s bottom line performance is like shooting at a moving target. Investors would be hoping that the solid earnings performance in the previous quarter was no false dawn, and the company would be able to satisfy the analyst estimate of a loss of $0.01 a share, which, if achieved, would result in a decline from a profit of $0.04 a share in the year-ago period.
Ciena’s gross margin was in the green in the previous quarter and if the company manages to sell more of its high-margin products and executes efficiently, then it might spring a positive surprise this time as well. But then, the company had admitted on the previous conference call that it isn’t in a position to sustain gross margin growth yet and it won’t be surprising if it falters again.
On outlook
If Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ:CIEN) manages to navigate the above-mentioned hurdles, it would boil down to the outlook. As I’d said earlier, there have been mixed cues about the health of telecom spending.
While telecom gear maker ADTRAN, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTN) had provided a good outlook and said that its carrier and enterprise businesses are expected to do well, optical networker JDS Uniphase Corp (NASDAQ:JDSU) went the opposite way as delays by carriers in releasing their budgets led to a dismal performance and outlook.
ADTRAN, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTN) and Uniphase have customers which are common with Ciena, and as such, their results were important for Ciena as well. Going by ADTRAN’s version, its major North American customer, which is probably AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T), would be aggressively upgrading its network, and this is in fact true. In addition, ADTRAN, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTN) is also looking to benefit from the infrastructure upgrade in Europe by another of its major Tier 1 customer.
And if we look a bit deeply at Uniphase’s recently-released results, it looks like the company was suffering from a temporary slowdown. Uniphase had finished the quarter with a book-to-bill ratio of above 1, which indicates that it is indeed witnessing orders flowing in. However, it isn’t quite sure of the timing of the roll outs and as such, had issued a seemingly conservative guidance.
But then, if Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ:CIEN) is indeed ahead of the rest in the industry, it should be able to provide a decent outlook since telecom spending is still there. Also, Ciena’s diversification across the globe, especially in Asia, is another reason why it might do well on outlook as well.
The takeaway
Ciena might or might not do well, depending on the underlying trends in the industry, but as I’ve stressed before, the long-term prospects are still good. However, I won’t suggest initiating a position now as Ciena is richly valued with a forward P/E of almost 20 and Enterprise Value/EBITDA of around 28. But then, if company falters in the upcoming quarterly report and shares fall, investors should consider adding to their Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ:CIEN) positions.
Harsh Chauhan has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
The article Judgment Day Is Coming for This Company originally appeared on Fool.com.
Harsh is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network — entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.
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